Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Obama VP Choice - II

Reader aaron comments:
So you're counting out Sebelius? She seems like a fairly safe pick, too.

It seems interesting to me, though, that we're talking about a campaign that might not have a Southerner for once. Sebelius and Bayh are both Midwesterners, even if they both come from some pretty conservative states. You don't count the appeal of having an additional white, Southern man on the ticket? I suppose that Obama's strengths in certain segments of the South kind of preclude that kind of appeal to the non-Obama supporting segment of the population.
To address the first point, I would really be shocked to see any woman on the ticket other than Clinton (who I believe is unlikely). I like Sebelius, and am glad to see her getting some national attention, I just don't see Obama trying to break through the gender and color gap at the same time.

The second point is quite interesting. I think, on some levels, there's simply no one to pick. The Democratic party brand was so bad over the last 15 years in the south that there really aren't any Dems with a lot of national prominence in that region. Claire McCaskill's about the best choice I can think of, and a popular senator in a swing state to boot, but again, I'm just not seeing her as having a strong chance.

I also believe that conventional wisdom about Dems needing a southerner on the ticket (or white, male, southerner) to succeed is prefaced on too few data points to be anything approaching an axiom. This is because any discussion of the "Democratic Party" prior to the party realignment that occurred during the Civil Rights movement is in many ways talking about a different party and especially a political climate that doesn't exist anymore. So for me, using in the '60 election shouldn't really count. This point is predicated upon only two people, Carter and Clinton -- not nearly enough examples to make any sort of inference. Let's also not forget Gore's 2000 run, where I think he'd really lost the "southern" label to the point that he lost his home state of Tennessee, had a VP candidate from Connecticut, and still got 500,000 more votes than Bush 43. If Gore becomes president in 2000, I think to a large extent the Democrats-need-a-southerner argument wouldn't be nearly as prominent.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Since I put my Sebelius comment under the Ted Stevens entry, allow me to now place my Ted Stevens comment in a completely inappropriate place. It's like nonstop non-sequiturs here on The Pseudo Body Politic! As for Ted and his Internets: well, I hear you have to drink a lot to stay warm in Anchorage. And now that he's indicted, do you suppose that they'll have to rename the Anchorage airport?

DP said...

Fear not. Non-sequiturs are the currency of the realm here at the TPBP. I guess I'll address your comment here, confusing as though that might be.

As for alcohol consumption, that may be, though if you need to stay warm you could always just see if an international energy firm would trade you a new central heating system for some favorable legislation.

More importantly, I had absolutely no idea that they'd named the airport after him. That's amazing! Regardless of your politics, why would you ever name anything as visible as your state's largest airport after Ted Stevens?

Anonymous said...

Statement Issued and Released

Statement Issued and Released on the world wide web at http://www.goclaire.4t.com
Contact information:
Jeff Kenkel co-chairman Honjeffkenkel@yahoo.com
Cell 417 380 2530 or cell 417 336 9496 home


Dear Barack Obama:

It has to be McCaskill to win!

1. Claire McCaskill needs to be the Vice Presidential Candidate to capture the female vote in November.

2. As Missouri goes so goes the nation. JOHN MCCAIN 50%
BARACK OBAMA 44% John McCain leads Barack Obama in Missouri , according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey. When "leaners" are included in the survey, McCain leads Obama 50% to 44%. When just solid supporters are tabulated, the results changes slightly: McCain 48%, Obama 41%. Clearly Claire McCaskill as a dynamic campaigner can turn that around and help win Missouri and other states with her down home talking.

3. To run a real campaign based on “Change” having two candidates who are outside the beltway and that have not only the feel but the real pulse of the people.

Mr. Obama Please consider Senator McCaskill this week as you make your decision.

Thank you and enjoy your vacation time.

Sincerely,

Jeff Kenkel

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