A lot has been written about how China will deal with the unprecedented scrutiny that comes with hosting an Olympic games. Some believe that political dissidents will cause disruptions during the games and others that China's government will be able to effectively clamp down on such actions. I'd like to cast my vote firmly for the former. I think the actual degree of dissatisfaction the domestic population has with the Chinese government will be exposed. Here in the west, the Chinese government is often portrayed as being extremely powerful, repressive and monolithic. It's also portrayed as ruthless in terms of dealing with internal political dissidents.
I think we're about to find out how true that portrayal is (and I think it's fair to note that it may not be totally accurate) -- particularly how much domestic dissatisfaction exists with the Chinese government. The Olympics will simply be too good an opportunity for anyone with a serious grudge against the Chinese government to remain silent. And, count me as one of the people that think that the Chinese will find themselves wholly unable to control both the media's access to news stories (particularly of a political nature), as well as the spin that foreign journalists put on such news. I read recently (I can't remember where) that there have been 20,000 press credentials issued for the Beijing games. A media swarm that size will not be controlled, not by the Chinese government, not by anyone. You're talking about a fundamentally entitled bunch. What are the Chinese going to do, detain them by the dozens or hundreds? Confiscate their equipment? Imprison them? If it comes to that (and it might, if there's any story to be had anywhere) it's a lose/lose for the Chinese.
Try to control them and alienate a city of press, or give up control and see where the media run with it, which probably won't be destinations that make China look in any way good. The press, especially the western press, will be looking for an excuse to make the Chinese fit into the totalitarian box that they know will sell the best back home. And if something looks fishy, if just one camera gets confiscated, you'll have gangs of pissed off media determined to get to the bottom of it. I don't think it's impossible that the western media have overstated the level of internal dissent in China and that the games go off without a hitch, but I honestly think that's unlikely. All eyes are about to be on China in a way they never have been before, and I think they're about to rediscover the axiom that almost everybody looks better clothed than naked.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
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6 comments:
For my two cents, I suspect that the vast majority of Chinese will treat the Olympics just the way the central government would want them to- as an opportunity to show off the country to the rest of the world and reinforce the historical narrative of progress the CCP is eager to promulgate. Even the many people who have legitimate grievances with the way the country is run (very few of whom live in the capital in the first place) will set aside their disgruntlement until after the games are over. To hedge their bets, the New York Times reports today that Beijing is being transformed into a fortress (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/04/sports/olympics/04china.html?_r=1&oref=slogin) and I suspect that anyone not holding the above mentioned foreign press credentials or with a television camera actually pointed at them is eligible for more or less arbitrary imprisonment for the duration of the games.
That said, there are disaffected groups in the western provinces who have already attempted to garner international attention with violence in recent weeks - the bus bombings in Kunming and the grenade attack early this morning in Kashgar both seem too conveniently timed to be coincidence. Considering that "separatists" in China have shown little ability to operate outside the Western border provinces, I would expect subsequent violence to be confined to that region- especially with Beijing locked down tighter than a can of sardines. Look for enterprising separatists/terrorists/freedom fighters to continue to attempt to get headlines closer to their territorial bases, or possibly to seek a higher profile target in some other major city such as Shanghai, Xi'an, or Guangzhou. Still, the topic is an interesting one, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out in subsequent weeks.
I can't even begin to compete with your obvious knowledge on the subject. Your points are well taken though. I surely agree that the average citizens inclination will be to show the best and not the worst, as most Chinese citizens I've met give Americans a serious run for their money in terms of nationalist sentiment.
But, back to Beijing the fortress. I'm still skeptical. I don't know if you can really do that to a city that large if there is anyone inclined to actually stir the pot a bit. I alluded to it in my post, but I'd like to ask -- in your opinion IS the level of internal dissent overstated in the west? If it is, I could see the games being a breeze, which of course turns my original predication into quite the tautology; if anyone's inclined to make a fuss you'll read/hear about it, but if no one does it's because no one wanted to.
Bearing in mind that I have not actually been to China in 5 years, which is an eternity considering their rate of change, disaffection is primarily focused in two basic camps.
The first are those who have been either exploited or neglected by the "economic miracle" of the last 25 years. Economic advantage has disproportionately accrued to urban residents, leaving the vast majority of the population which works in agriculture mired in poverty and susceptible to regional shenanigans such as land grabs from local power brokers. Populations centered in places like Harbin, where unemployment remains around 75% following the disassembly of the heavy industry that underpinned its job market, should also be included here. These groups protest (how often is open to debate) and those protests sometimes turn violent, but not really in an organized sense- it's the violence of a mob armed with ersatz weapons of the club and tool variety. Predominately Han, I think it very unlikely that this population would seek to exploit the games for their own advantage.
The second group are the minority populations in Tibet, Xinjiang, and to a much lesser degree, Inner Mongolia, who have a history of organized, effective (in Tibet's case, CIA funded) resistance to Chinese rule and remain hotbeds of nascent violence. As these groups have already demonstrated their willingness to use the games to get publicity in recent months, no doubt they will seek to exploit future opportunities should they arise.
However, minority violence tends to provoke strongly nationalistic responses among most of the Han population, encouraging them to close ranks against the perceived "other."
Further, neither of these demographics are centered anywhere near Beijing, or really any major city- after certain events in 1989, it has been state policy to make sure that the population of Beijing, the only population that could really unseat the government in an afternoon, sees disproportionately the fruits of capitalism. That, and there is a rather bizarre Chinese mythology holding that Beijing is home to all of the (good adjective)+ est things in China, again working to minimize the odds of public unrest.
Of course, all major cities in China harbor large populations of migrant workers illegally working in trades like construction, and these off-the-grid populations could provide cover for someone bent on infiltrating a major city. Still, with apologies for the length of all this, there is scant previous evidence of these groups having the resources for such operations. I reiterate my earlier suggestion that if disruptions during the games occur, they will not actually be at the games, but rather in other parts of the country, particularly the far western provinces.
Your analysis makes sense to me, but haven't you just said (very intelligently and eloquently I might add) that the level of internal dissent in mainland China is just not particularly high?
I know it was approaching 20 years ago, but how weren't the crushing of the Tiananmen Square protests a springboard for MORE internal dissatisfaction.
If a bunch of protesters marched by my apartment advocating Bush's impeachment, I wouldn't be joining them, but if those same protesters were violently repressed by uniformed army personnel I might be at the next rally.
Is the difference primarily cultural? Having lived in Asia for several years myself (though admittedly not in China), I thought I noticed a general disinclination to rock the boat, but I don't know if that alone could account for a lack of public response in post-Tiananmen China. Is there no problem with the high degree of censorship and corruption? And, if so, why not? There's no real theocratic ideology to fall back on (e.g. Mohammed hates the internet).
I understand my argument lacks nuance, but there's something I'm just not getting. Thanks for taking the time to write.
What I was trying to suggest is not that the level of disaffection is not very high, but that it tends to be centered in populations that:
1. Are located some distance away from Beijing and have little previous history of being able to project violence, suggesting that they may be simply unable to disrupt the games,
or,
2. Will treat their disaffection with regard to the games the way married people treat disagreements about household spending just before friends arrive for dinner; The disagreement goes under the rug until a more socially appropriate time.
Having continued to muse on this topic since my last posting, it occurs to me that my writing thus far neglects to mention the very obvious fact that the Olympics are a target significant enough to attract terrorists with no particular grudge against China, and if one draws the focus back there are no shortage of organizations that could and would take advantage of the global stage as happened in Munich in 1972.
Further, having gotten through the opening ceremonies today with (according to the BBC report I heard earlier) only a few instances of individuals producing Tibetan flags in crowd areas, and with said individuals being promptly removed from public view, it seems the most prominent opportunity for protest or disruption has now come and gone.
Still, better informed commentators than myself have pointed out that Kunming is hardly a city ordinarily targeted for violence, that transportation bombing is a hallmark of Al Queda, and that so far the Chinese government purports to have zero leads on who executed those attacks or why. That is food for unsettling thought.
Finally, the Tiananmen incident in 1989 is a complicated precedent for future protests in China. While there is some reason to question the veracity of the documents it contains, readers interested in the Chinese perspective on those events should check out the "Tiananmen Papers," which if nothing else seek to put the demonstrations in more nuanced (Chinese government dictated?) perspective than most media sources. Very briefly, the demonstrations tended (as everywhere) to be led by students rather than the general population, and after the demonstrations across the country were dispersed, a generation of outspoken leaders fled abroad, were imprisoned, or adopted much less dangerous career paths. Most younger Chinese in my anecdotal experience aren't even aware that anything of particular interest happened in their country in 1989. The new generation seems informed by what is probably the most significant legacy of the '89 protests, specifically that the rough social contract between the Chinese government and those it rules changed from that of an organization purporting to be a dictatorship of the proletariat responsive to the peoples' will to being just a dictatorship, albeit one that will let you get rich if you stop asking questions, bribe the right people, and just go about your business.
So here is the tenor of protest so far- note particularly that the protesters in question are none of them Chinese.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080809/ap_on_re_as/oly_protests;_ylt=AiQJ4ehA114BsRr1LXmjz.r9xg8F
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