Context is Key

Sean, over at 538, has an interesting perspective on the story Talking Points Memo reported earlier today of McCain outspending Obama on television ads in key battleground states. I think it’s a good take, and it reminds us of something that doesn’t get talked about much:

Readers here know that Barack Obama is dwarfing John McCain's ground operation; we've written about it repeatedly. Those thousands of paid organizers are not working for free. The field offices and the phone lines and the Blackberries and the reimbursed travel miles are not free. Moreover, Barack Obama pays his organizers out of the Campaign for Change, which is funded by Obama's own campaign; McCain's are mostly paid by the coordinated committees which in turn are funded by the RNC, RNSC and RNCC, further impacting the way spending numbers are attributed to each campaign.

Sean points out that Obama is investing more heavily in getting campaign workers in states than pretty much anyone running for president, ever. Simply, the McCain campaign has way less money than Obama, and way less ability to raise more of it. It’s easy to forget about it, but McCain’s operation is tiny compared to Obama’s. I suppose it’s anyone’s guess how this will turn out for Obama. But at the moment, Obama is spending less on ads in traditionally key states, but he’s spending money on ads in way more states than McCain, and he’s spending way, way more than McCain on people on the ground, going door to door, passing out literature and talking to people. And most importantly: McCain may still be spending all this money, but he’s still behind or tied. It’s easy to look at the narrative day-by-day and say, “Oh, Obama’s been doing badly for a few weeks” – but you have to look at the context of a much larger, longer campaign than McCain is running – or is even able to run.