I think the only thing you are missing is that Joe (if he stays in the caucus and runs in the democratic primary again in 2012) has lost a primary before... but was still able to throttle Ned in the general with the votes of republicans and those democrats who are still loyal to him (a shrinking number from latest polls, but still could be possible) Even if he runs independent it could still happen.... he might just think he is too electorally safe for the Dems to do anything to him.I'm very skeptical that could happen again. Clearly he wasn't the flavor de jour of Conn. democrats in 2006, but he still very narrowly lost of Lamont in the Democratic primary, 52-48. Even in the general he only beat Lamont by 10 points, in a race in which the Republican candidate got absolutely no endorsements, support, or votes from his own party. And, remember that was two years ago. He's really alienated a lot of members of the Democratic Party since then. Lieberman presumably carried nearly half of the voting Democrats in the general election. How many would he carry today against a legitimate Democratic alternative (which I think Lamont was)? Remember, there aren't enough Republicans in Conn. to put him over the top without some really significant Democratic support, and I'm just not sure he would get it. If he did actually get booted from the Democratic caucus and joined the Republicans, I really can't imagine Conn. sending a Republican senator to Washington. Dom could be right, but I just can't see his electoral position in Conn. to be anything but precarious.
Post Script: I can't believe I neglected to consider this in my first post, but if McCain is elected, Lieberman's position in the Democratic caucus is a moot point since McCain will give him a cabinet position.
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One thing or another, I have a hard time seeing Lieberman serving out the rest of his term. I know he will, but I can think of a bunch of reasons for why he might not want to. Whether Obama is elected or not, most likely the Democrats are going to pick up a number of senate seats, at least enough that they can strip Lieberman of his senority and boot him out of the caucus (and far past time). If McCain pulls it out, I think it's unlikely that he'd stay in the senate -- like you mentioned, I'm sure there'll be a cabinet position for him. And if Obama wins, what's Lieberman going to do as a backbench moderate Republican from a Democratic state?
One thing I do wonder at, does Lieberman go to the end of the list if he caucuses with the Republicans, senority-wise? Or would they shuffle him into the middle of the deck?
Anyways, it's interesting. Either way, I won't be sorry to see the Joementum finally wind down for good.
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