Didn't See It Coming, But Not Really Surprised

Jeez, you go to lunch and Arlen Specter changes freakin’ parties. With Toomey polling above fifty percent in a potential Republican primary, this really isn’t that big a surprise. Specter obviously makes much more sense in the Democratic caucus than he did in the Republican one – the most conservative Democrat is way more conservative than the most liberal Republican is.

One of the strangest things about the modern story of the Republican Party is the degree of party loyalty they have been able to engender, and the degree to which its outer fringes hold sway inside the party. The same is just not true for Democrats – look at the degree to which blue dogs like Bayh feel free to go against large, popular legislation with impunity, and the degree that even moderate Republicans like Voinovich, Snowe, Collins and even Specter are forced to toe the line.

Interesting times. At any rate, this should impact EFCA in some interesting ways, so perhaps we'll hear from DP later about that.

Endangered Species, Republican Moderate Edition

Interesting but not surprising development from George Voinovich. As the article states, Voinovich will be 74 in 2010, and that is pretty old for someone seeking another six year term. It’s far too early to use this as any sort of indicator of Republican fortunes in the next round of congressional elections, of course. The eight hundred pound bear in the room hasn’t decided exactly what’s going to happen, so it’ll be good to know if we have a wall to hang curtains on before we head down to Penney’s to look at fabric swatches.

Voinovich has long been one of the Senate’s main moderate Republicans. It seems likely from the early maneuverings that the Republican Party is reacting to its electoral drubbings in 2006 and 2008 not by tempering their tone, but by going out of their way to embrace a new Christian, Southern, anti-immigrant, pro-war, pro-torture orthodoxy. A seat like Voinovich’s, in a swing state that wanders all over electorally, could be a real test for the soul of the Republican Party. Who the various factions back, and who comes out the winner will be very telling for what we can expect from the future.

Which begs the question, who will run for Voinovich’s seat? The current Democratic Governor of Ohio, Ted Strickland, will be up for reelection in 2010. Perhaps he could be enticed to run, although he showed a real reticence to be dragged into national politics during the Democratic primary race. On the Republican side, I can’t think of anyone of a similar stature. Any suggestions?

Gaze Into the Future with Aaron

Bringing the curtain down on the Alaskan Senate race puts the attention back on the Minnesota recount and the Georgia run-off. Martin is unlikely to triumph in the run-off, I think, but you never know, and Franken is going into the recount officially behind by two hundred or so votes. Anything could happen there, but I’m not getting my expectations up. Still, two things worth watching for the next couple of weeks. Realistically, though, I think we can expect the senate to have fifty-six Democrats, fifty-eight with Bernie Saunders and Joe Lieberman. So what about 2010?

It’s impossible to predict what will happen, obviously – too much depends upon President Obama’s performance and how the economy is doing in the lead up to the election. That being said, there are a number of Senators running for reelection who are already over seventy years old: McCain, obviously, but Mikulski, Shelby, Grassley, Bunning, Specter, Bennett and Voinovich are all older than dirt, too, and the election is still two years away.

Since I’m an Ohioan, I’m especially curious about what Voinovich is going to do. Mike DeWine was defeated in 2006 by Sherrod Brown, and Voinovich has long been one of the Republican caucus’s few remaining moderates. If the economy does turn around, he’ll be stuck between a rock and a hard place: going against the Republican party line will invite a primary challenge from the right, while not working with Democrats could endanger his chances if Ohio continues it’s progressive turn. Does Voinovich want to be vote number sixty that puts Obama’s Supreme Court picks on the bench? Or does he want to go back to Cleveland with his hat in his hand, explaining why he’s been preventing a popular president from enacting his agenda?

All of that, of course, supposes that Obama still is a popular president in 2010. If I had to guess, I’d say Republican gains are likely. The idea of a sixty plus Democratic majority in the Senate strikes me as tremendously unlikely. We’ll see.