So, firstly, I'd like to point out the most recent development with our African pirate friends. The UN has finally approved air and land operations in Somalia to suppress them with military force. Read the disappointingly brief story here.
In an earlier post, I received some criticism for the suggestion that the appropriate response to Somali piracy was to mount machine guns on gunwales of freighters as they moved through the threatened sea lanes, on the grounds that the idea was impractical. Here is an AP photograph of a member of the Dutch special forces, manning his gun on the freighter De Ruyter as it moves through the Gulf of Aden. I have no idea what the scale of this program is, but I would bet the pictured ship made it through ok.
It will be interesting to see what comes of this resolution. Presumably, current deterrent operations will be dwarfed.
Anyone considering the purchase of an eyepatch and parrot may want to pick up a different line of work. Or get them via overnight mail. We may be nearing the end of our series on African pirates.
Showing posts with label Pirates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pirates. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
PW's Pirate Redux
Well, if we’re going to seriously engage in this pirate business, then 1) I have some thoughts, and 2) it’s time to administer a good old-fashioned TPBP smackdown to PW, who while possessing a generally superior intellect, is off the mark on this one.
He starts out on the right track by attempting to point out the economic contexts of the situation. I remember reading recently (I can’t find the source, so take it with the requisite grain of salt) that piracy generated Somalia’s largest influx of hard currency, ringing in at over $100 million in the last year (a shockingly small amount for the largest sector of a 7 million person economy).
But then we get to this:
Minus some kind of real government/economic security improvement you can count on these attacks continuing, if not escalating. But, when PW posits --
Arming any one ship would be quite expensive, arming an entire fleet even more so, and arming all cumulative fleets that travel in Somali territorial waters would be impossibly expensive. There’s a reason this option hasn’t really been discussed, and all of these companies are instead clamoring for government military escorts. It’s deceptively intuitive to see a scenario that morphs into an acquadic version of the last half hour of Fast and the Furious (a la truckers with shotguns), but it’s not going to happen. PW is making an economic argument: raise the cost of piracy to the point that the pirates will no longer wish to engage in it. Though it’s not inconceivable that the costs of piracy become high enough to prevent it, that evolution is somewhat at odds with Somalia’s overall economic and political reality.
I’m not advocating the following tactic so much as opening the floor for discussion, but perhaps these pirate groups (or at least the most powerful among them) should be engaged in negotiations to open Somalia’s costal shipping lanes. This would neutralize the threat, prevent PW’s (ultimately inefficient and expensive) armed conflict and allow us to open up lines of communication with a group (the pirates) with whom we probably have more in common than the Islamic Courts Union folks that are ostensibly in charge of the country.
This piracy business is a pain in everyone’s ass, but more importantly it’s an increasingly costly pain in everyone’s ass. The only way PW’s solution works for any meaningful length of time is the permanent and significant arming of all commercial shipping operations (lest they get lax and the piracy resumes). If you could just pay the pirates some percentage less than the total cost of said arming (hopefully a tiny fraction of the total cost) everyone would be better off. It’s probably not the solution, but worth thinking about at any rate.
He starts out on the right track by attempting to point out the economic contexts of the situation. I remember reading recently (I can’t find the source, so take it with the requisite grain of salt) that piracy generated Somalia’s largest influx of hard currency, ringing in at over $100 million in the last year (a shockingly small amount for the largest sector of a 7 million person economy).
But then we get to this:
Certainly, there is something to the observation that much of Africa should be better integrated into the global economy on terms that actually generate wealth for more people who live there. But that doesn't really fly in Somalia.I think that it would fly. It would take a large investment, but not impossibly large. Move in 10K troops for peacekeeping purposes, and dump $1 billion a month for infrastructure spending. I should point out that I have no idea what I’m talking about in terms of aid expenditure, distribution, etc. -- which is an admittedly poor start, but I have a hard time believing that some small fraction of our Iraqi expenditure, used even semi-productively, wouldn't make a real difference in economic terms.
Minus some kind of real government/economic security improvement you can count on these attacks continuing, if not escalating. But, when PW posits --
What kind of weapon systems could you fit to a tanker for half the cost of the 20mil USD you'd have to pay for a ransom?--he's sidestepping a problem of scale.
Arming any one ship would be quite expensive, arming an entire fleet even more so, and arming all cumulative fleets that travel in Somali territorial waters would be impossibly expensive. There’s a reason this option hasn’t really been discussed, and all of these companies are instead clamoring for government military escorts. It’s deceptively intuitive to see a scenario that morphs into an acquadic version of the last half hour of Fast and the Furious (a la truckers with shotguns), but it’s not going to happen. PW is making an economic argument: raise the cost of piracy to the point that the pirates will no longer wish to engage in it. Though it’s not inconceivable that the costs of piracy become high enough to prevent it, that evolution is somewhat at odds with Somalia’s overall economic and political reality.
I’m not advocating the following tactic so much as opening the floor for discussion, but perhaps these pirate groups (or at least the most powerful among them) should be engaged in negotiations to open Somalia’s costal shipping lanes. This would neutralize the threat, prevent PW’s (ultimately inefficient and expensive) armed conflict and allow us to open up lines of communication with a group (the pirates) with whom we probably have more in common than the Islamic Courts Union folks that are ostensibly in charge of the country.
This piracy business is a pain in everyone’s ass, but more importantly it’s an increasingly costly pain in everyone’s ass. The only way PW’s solution works for any meaningful length of time is the permanent and significant arming of all commercial shipping operations (lest they get lax and the piracy resumes). If you could just pay the pirates some percentage less than the total cost of said arming (hopefully a tiny fraction of the total cost) everyone would be better off. It’s probably not the solution, but worth thinking about at any rate.
Enough With The Yarrrr!
So here is yet another post on pirates.
These were novel when we started making them some months ago, because pirates, really, shouldn't exist in the 21st century, save in MMORPG's and Disney movies.
As the novelty has faded with each new instance of piracy off the African coast, so has the amusement. Huffpo reports that they went after a cruise ship yesterday, a disturbing escalation. It's one thing to hold tanks or oil for ransom, another entirely to hold people who have to be fed and cared for.
Following the seizure of the Saudi oil tanker last week, news coverage has rather exploded, and has shifted to focus on the people doing the pirating. This Reuters article talks about the new beachfront hotels going up in Somalia to cater to pirate-patrons. Much of this coverage has turned to the idea that the ultimate cause of the piracy is a lack of economic development in Africa.
Certainly, there is something to the observation that much of Africa should be better integrated into the global economy on terms that actually generate wealth for more people who live there. But that doesn't really fly in Somalia. Somalia remains effectively lawless - if you still had money to invest, how much of it would you invest in Somali port development, roads, factories? There are places where international aid could be the answer, but Somalia, right now, isn't one of them.
Which sorta reduces the possible solutions, and I guess I don't really understand all the hand-wringing. I hate to be so crude, but the solution to this problem is probably about 600 years old- you put guns on your ship, and when pirates try to board it, you sink them. What kind of weapon systems could you fit to a tanker for half the cost of the 20mil USD you'd have to pay for a ransom? The whole business model of seizing incredibly valuable, defenseless assets evaporates once the assets are no longer defenseless. Certainly, there is no way to sink a tanker with small arms. Yes, there might be some escalation from the pirates, but as the Indian Navy recently demonstrated, once you force the pirates into bigger ships, the professionals can deal with them in the time-honored fashion. Open sea lanes have been the foundation of the world's economic order since the British put themselves in charge of patrolling them, and people who threaten the great global commons should be playing for the highest of stakes.
These were novel when we started making them some months ago, because pirates, really, shouldn't exist in the 21st century, save in MMORPG's and Disney movies.
As the novelty has faded with each new instance of piracy off the African coast, so has the amusement. Huffpo reports that they went after a cruise ship yesterday, a disturbing escalation. It's one thing to hold tanks or oil for ransom, another entirely to hold people who have to be fed and cared for.
Following the seizure of the Saudi oil tanker last week, news coverage has rather exploded, and has shifted to focus on the people doing the pirating. This Reuters article talks about the new beachfront hotels going up in Somalia to cater to pirate-patrons. Much of this coverage has turned to the idea that the ultimate cause of the piracy is a lack of economic development in Africa.
Certainly, there is something to the observation that much of Africa should be better integrated into the global economy on terms that actually generate wealth for more people who live there. But that doesn't really fly in Somalia. Somalia remains effectively lawless - if you still had money to invest, how much of it would you invest in Somali port development, roads, factories? There are places where international aid could be the answer, but Somalia, right now, isn't one of them.
Which sorta reduces the possible solutions, and I guess I don't really understand all the hand-wringing. I hate to be so crude, but the solution to this problem is probably about 600 years old- you put guns on your ship, and when pirates try to board it, you sink them. What kind of weapon systems could you fit to a tanker for half the cost of the 20mil USD you'd have to pay for a ransom? The whole business model of seizing incredibly valuable, defenseless assets evaporates once the assets are no longer defenseless. Certainly, there is no way to sink a tanker with small arms. Yes, there might be some escalation from the pirates, but as the Indian Navy recently demonstrated, once you force the pirates into bigger ships, the professionals can deal with them in the time-honored fashion. Open sea lanes have been the foundation of the world's economic order since the British put themselves in charge of patrolling them, and people who threaten the great global commons should be playing for the highest of stakes.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Pirates, Ahoy! (Again)
More pirate shenanigans off the coast of Somalia, as an oil supertanker has been hijacked – two million barrels of crude oil, according to CNN International. Pirates, of course, have been cutting quite a swath of terror through the Indian Ocean of late. It seems bizarre to imagine pirates still operating on the high seas, but here we are. They’re still holding the Ukrainian arms ship that they captured in September, along with ten other vessels in their control.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Yar!
Oh, and those Somali pirates who nabbed a ship full of tanks and heavy weapons? They want 20 million US to release it.
Were is Iron Man, Chuck Norris, or the governor of California when we need them?
In fact, now that I think about it, didn't the marines cut their teeth as an organization suppressing African piracy? Sounds like a job opportunity.
See the story here.
Were is Iron Man, Chuck Norris, or the governor of California when we need them?
In fact, now that I think about it, didn't the marines cut their teeth as an organization suppressing African piracy? Sounds like a job opportunity.
See the story here.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Tanks, But No Tanks
In news more appropriate to the opening scenes of a super-hero film, pirates off the Somalian coast have seized control of a tanker ship hauling 31 Russian made T-72 tanks, the BBC reports.
The ship has subsequently disappeared.
The tanks, along with an assortment of anti-aircraft weapons and RPGs, are not surprisingly worth a fortune according to the Times.
Less sensational, but ultimately more interesting, is that Russia has announced the beginning of anti-piracy naval patrols along the Somali coast. Isn't that precisely the sort of job the US navy should be all over, as part of their effort to keep the world's sea lanes open? Are we ceding a zone of influence in the Indian ocean, along Europe's oil shipping lanes to the Russians? Potentially, that would be far bigger news than what's been going on in Georgia.
The ship has subsequently disappeared.
The tanks, along with an assortment of anti-aircraft weapons and RPGs, are not surprisingly worth a fortune according to the Times.
Less sensational, but ultimately more interesting, is that Russia has announced the beginning of anti-piracy naval patrols along the Somali coast. Isn't that precisely the sort of job the US navy should be all over, as part of their effort to keep the world's sea lanes open? Are we ceding a zone of influence in the Indian ocean, along Europe's oil shipping lanes to the Russians? Potentially, that would be far bigger news than what's been going on in Georgia.
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