Well, the racists certainly don’t seem content to go gentle into that good night. I guess that shouldn’t surprise us. I imagine that Matt Yglesias is entirely correct when he assumes that an Obama victory will drive the racist elements of the Republican coalition into the open air for on last, grand Götterdämmerung. Well, that’s just fine with me. As these things go, sunlight is the best cure. This is why the civil rights movement was so very successful. The contrast was simply too stark: you can’t look at a parade full of quiet, peaceful, respectable people having firehoses turned on them by thugs like Bull Connor without having it shape your attitudes. In that sense, nonsense like the kind of theatrics we’re seeing at Palin’s rallies are more likely to continue, not less.
This strategy might wring a few more votes out of the bitter, decaying pulp of the Republican coalition, a brief distraction from the economy’s woes – perhaps even the outside chance of a victory.
So here’s my question for those inclined to answer it: what will replace the Republican Party? Will they just have to spend some time out of power for people to forget the upcoming ugliness, as well as the corruption, malfeasance and stupidity of the Bush Era? Or will they be utterly destroyed, the brand rendered so hollow and meaningless that it has to be replaced with something entirely new? Just because we’ve had over a hundred years of dominance by the Republican and Democratic Parties doesn’t mean it always has to be like that. It’d be pretty exciting to watch, too.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Monday, October 6, 2008
Courting the Racist Vote
Ben Smith at Politico sends along the experience of an Obama volunteer talking to people in a white working class neighborhood of Philadelphia.
On a more sociological note, I think this says something interesting about the United States. The media won’t come out and call anyone racist directly. After almost forty years of Sesame Street, if nothing else we’ve learned it’s not culturally acceptable to be a racist. This has positive and negative effects. It means that people see racism in public statements when they aren’t warranted and ignore them when they are.
"What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."How fascinating is that? Out and out, unapologetic racists still can’t decide if they can vote for McCain. What does it say when a person who would use that kind of language – to an Obama campaign worker – and still can’t talk themselves into voting for the old white guy? It’s always been true that economic issues cut for the Democratic candidate as well as the party out of power. I think we’re seeing that effect in full force if even the racists are undecided.
On a more sociological note, I think this says something interesting about the United States. The media won’t come out and call anyone racist directly. After almost forty years of Sesame Street, if nothing else we’ve learned it’s not culturally acceptable to be a racist. This has positive and negative effects. It means that people see racism in public statements when they aren’t warranted and ignore them when they are.
Endgame
Fully aware of the pitfalls that await anyone who would seek to go into the future-predicting business, the aggregate effect of this morning leaves little choice:
As part of my effort to generate more reader comments, I'm calling it.
With 34 days left, the race is ending, and Barack Obama has won.
Let's review the state of affairs that compel me to this post:
1. The massive federal bailout of the financial markets has not only failed to shore up the US markets, but has done little to shore up the approaching collapse of Europe's financial centers. Desperate efforts to prop up banks in Germany and Ireland over the weekend are probably the tip of the iceberg. The financial collapse of the Western world is driving a wave of news stories comparing the US in 2008 to Great Britain in 1946, when the costs of World War II forced London to essentially cede the global stage to Washington in exchange for a massive financial aide package. This charming state of affairs: brought to you by Republican governing philosophy. The economy is like kryptonite to the Republican campaign. McCain desperately needs the financial crisis to go away- it isn't. And it isn't going to.
2. Having been hammered in two consecutive debates, McPalin are now attempting to pivot away from the economic storyline which has done so much to hurt them in the last few weeks and regain control of their campaign message. However, they seek to do this by going back to the Wright and Rezko storylines that failed to bite six months ago and that feel anti-climatic, indeed rather desperate, at this point. If this is all they have left in the arsenal, it's the equivalent of dropping back into a prevent defense. And we all know what that prevents.
3. And then we come to the announcement that McCain's health care plan, which frankly never made much sense, will be paid for by gutting Medicare and Medicaid. There are die-hard conservatives who hate those programs. There are millions and millions more elderly people who rely on them, and who see voting to protect them as a seminal political issue. In fact, I'm struggling to think of another policy decision likely to have a similarly negative effect on support for McPalin, and right in the middle of the demographic most likely to support them too...reversing the outcome of the civil war, perhaps? Surrendering Oregon and Washington state to Canada?
It is difficult to say when efforts of the magnitude of a presidential campaign reach tipping points, but this weekend has the feel of one. The points listed above seem most salient, but there are so many others I could include- the withdrawal from Michigan, the transformation of Palin into a national joke (a woman channeling her yesterday afternoon couldn't impersonate Palin without including Tina Fey), McCain's increasingly obvious physical exhaustion, the political and moral bankruptcy of the Bush administration...how many more things could this list contain?
There are still two debates left, one of them being a town-hall style discussion ostensibly favoring McCain, but unless he radically reworks the direction of his campaign between now and then, it isn't going to matter. There's plenty of room left for endgame, but barring the occurrence of a series of events so terrible they will not even be committed to print, the outcome is increasingly clear.
This week, consideration turns to what will be left of the ship of state when Obama takes the helm.
Oh yeah, one other thing that hopefully doesn't even need saying: I'm not that good at this, so you should still make a point of voting :)
As part of my effort to generate more reader comments, I'm calling it.
With 34 days left, the race is ending, and Barack Obama has won.
Let's review the state of affairs that compel me to this post:
1. The massive federal bailout of the financial markets has not only failed to shore up the US markets, but has done little to shore up the approaching collapse of Europe's financial centers. Desperate efforts to prop up banks in Germany and Ireland over the weekend are probably the tip of the iceberg. The financial collapse of the Western world is driving a wave of news stories comparing the US in 2008 to Great Britain in 1946, when the costs of World War II forced London to essentially cede the global stage to Washington in exchange for a massive financial aide package. This charming state of affairs: brought to you by Republican governing philosophy. The economy is like kryptonite to the Republican campaign. McCain desperately needs the financial crisis to go away- it isn't. And it isn't going to.
2. Having been hammered in two consecutive debates, McPalin are now attempting to pivot away from the economic storyline which has done so much to hurt them in the last few weeks and regain control of their campaign message. However, they seek to do this by going back to the Wright and Rezko storylines that failed to bite six months ago and that feel anti-climatic, indeed rather desperate, at this point. If this is all they have left in the arsenal, it's the equivalent of dropping back into a prevent defense. And we all know what that prevents.
3. And then we come to the announcement that McCain's health care plan, which frankly never made much sense, will be paid for by gutting Medicare and Medicaid. There are die-hard conservatives who hate those programs. There are millions and millions more elderly people who rely on them, and who see voting to protect them as a seminal political issue. In fact, I'm struggling to think of another policy decision likely to have a similarly negative effect on support for McPalin, and right in the middle of the demographic most likely to support them too...reversing the outcome of the civil war, perhaps? Surrendering Oregon and Washington state to Canada?
It is difficult to say when efforts of the magnitude of a presidential campaign reach tipping points, but this weekend has the feel of one. The points listed above seem most salient, but there are so many others I could include- the withdrawal from Michigan, the transformation of Palin into a national joke (a woman channeling her yesterday afternoon couldn't impersonate Palin without including Tina Fey), McCain's increasingly obvious physical exhaustion, the political and moral bankruptcy of the Bush administration...how many more things could this list contain?
There are still two debates left, one of them being a town-hall style discussion ostensibly favoring McCain, but unless he radically reworks the direction of his campaign between now and then, it isn't going to matter. There's plenty of room left for endgame, but barring the occurrence of a series of events so terrible they will not even be committed to print, the outcome is increasingly clear.
This week, consideration turns to what will be left of the ship of state when Obama takes the helm.
Oh yeah, one other thing that hopefully doesn't even need saying: I'm not that good at this, so you should still make a point of voting :)
Sunday, October 5, 2008
The Escalating Downhill Slide
Eve Fairbanks has an article in the Washington Post today discussing the developing core of the Republican Party in the house: committed to ideology over practicality, this group of new young movement conservatives prefer to be philosophically consistent rather than getting down to the hard business of compromise and, you know, governing.
It’s been a fair long while since the Republican Party (especially in the House, but with a handful of nutters in the Senate) have been interested in actually running the government. When reality contradicts what they believe (trickle-down economics works, having solid first principles is more important than experience, education or knowledge), they simply ignore reality. The end result of this is a group of people in deep red seats that are committed to their own version of the world, no matter what happens. This is the logical endgame of the Republican Party, who for going on forty years now have believed that if reality contradicts them (in the form, especially, of the media) it’s best to simply ignore and slander it.
Talk radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity (ironic spell check suggestions: Sanity) and the rest of the Fox News crew have based their whole program on ignoring and dismissing what their “enemies” (and “enemy” here should be read as “people who disagree and/or point out that they’re wrong”) contradict them, they are either to be ignored, marginalized or demonized, whichever is most convenient. This has certainly been a successful tactic up until now and has reached its fullest flower in Sarah Palin. Instead of learning from their legislative defeats in 2006 and what looks like an upcoming electoral slaughterhouse in 2008, these delightful conservative lawmakers are adapating a new version of the Tinkerbell Theory of Electorial Politics: if you lose, it’s not because voters have dismissed your arguments – it’s just that you didn’t lay out your arguments forcefully enough.
All of this is certainly fine with me. The Republican Party’s headlong rush to religious, racist regionalism can only be of benefit to the rest of the Union. I’d like to say it’s been nice knowing you, fellas, but I don’t want to lie.
It’s been a fair long while since the Republican Party (especially in the House, but with a handful of nutters in the Senate) have been interested in actually running the government. When reality contradicts what they believe (trickle-down economics works, having solid first principles is more important than experience, education or knowledge), they simply ignore reality. The end result of this is a group of people in deep red seats that are committed to their own version of the world, no matter what happens. This is the logical endgame of the Republican Party, who for going on forty years now have believed that if reality contradicts them (in the form, especially, of the media) it’s best to simply ignore and slander it.
Talk radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity (ironic spell check suggestions: Sanity) and the rest of the Fox News crew have based their whole program on ignoring and dismissing what their “enemies” (and “enemy” here should be read as “people who disagree and/or point out that they’re wrong”) contradict them, they are either to be ignored, marginalized or demonized, whichever is most convenient. This has certainly been a successful tactic up until now and has reached its fullest flower in Sarah Palin. Instead of learning from their legislative defeats in 2006 and what looks like an upcoming electoral slaughterhouse in 2008, these delightful conservative lawmakers are adapating a new version of the Tinkerbell Theory of Electorial Politics: if you lose, it’s not because voters have dismissed your arguments – it’s just that you didn’t lay out your arguments forcefully enough.
All of this is certainly fine with me. The Republican Party’s headlong rush to religious, racist regionalism can only be of benefit to the rest of the Union. I’d like to say it’s been nice knowing you, fellas, but I don’t want to lie.
This Untrue Information May Be Used Against You
According to Wired’s Threat Level blog, the Supreme Court is about to consider a case on the government’s use of databases. In Alabama, a man was arrested because a database falsely said that he had a warrant in another county. When the officers arrested him (on a non existent warrant) they discovered crystal meth and a handgun. What’s surprising about the case is that the government is not arguing the search was Constitutional – everyone agrees that it wasn’t. What the government is saying is that it just doesn’t matter: it’s too complicated and involved for the government to bother keeping up-to-date records.
More and more of our information is being collected and collated in government databases. It’s nothing more than the government’s responsibility to make sure that these kinds of incidents don’t happen. If this evidence would be thrown out because a police officer didn’t have probable cause to search him in the first place, it ought to be thrown out because he was arrested for a warrant that wasn’t active. I fail to see a distinction between the two.
With nonsense like the “terrorism watch list” and other shadowy government databases, we need to hash out some new rights regarding the kind of information the government can collect, keep and use against you. If the government isn’t responsible for making sure this information is accurate and correct, than why would they bother?
More and more of our information is being collected and collated in government databases. It’s nothing more than the government’s responsibility to make sure that these kinds of incidents don’t happen. If this evidence would be thrown out because a police officer didn’t have probable cause to search him in the first place, it ought to be thrown out because he was arrested for a warrant that wasn’t active. I fail to see a distinction between the two.
With nonsense like the “terrorism watch list” and other shadowy government databases, we need to hash out some new rights regarding the kind of information the government can collect, keep and use against you. If the government isn’t responsible for making sure this information is accurate and correct, than why would they bother?
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Not Out of the Woods
So in another stunning victory for American politics, the House passed the "bailout" bill which was an irresponsible affront to free market capitalism at 700 billion, but became good policy with the addition of numerous absurd earmark spending amendments. The bill was then transported at something approaching light speed to Still President Bush, who signed it so rapidly that he probably didn't read it, and with that another roughly trillion dollars of debt was added to the federal budget.
One of the things which endeared Bill Clinton to me was his penchant for balanced budgets, surpluses even. Eight years of wild deficit spending are now bookended by another massive, emergency spending bill. The punditocracy have breathed a collective sigh of relief, and have returned home to see their pets, children, and significant others during daylight hours for the first time in two weeks. We've thrown a heap of money at the problem, and no doubt it is now solved.
But here's the thing- nobody, anywhere, knows if this will work. We are still improvising at a pace that doesn't allow for much reflection. Wall Street is having a hard time finding anyone to ring the bell opening the market on Monday, people not wanting to be associated with a possible ongoing disaster. But the stocks are only the surface ripples created by the monster lurking beneath the waves, the non-liquidity of the commercial paper markets. If you are one of the many still struggling to understand the madness of this debacle, I highly recommend this piece from This American Life, explaining the whole thing in a very approachable way.
Pay no attention to the screaming CNN headlines about the performance of Wall Street. Wait to see if banks resume loaning money to one another- that's the real, and only, marker of a resolution to yet another Republican-created disaster. And don't be astonished if we end up throwing another trillion at the beast two weeks from now.
Also, due to the rampant popularity of the radio piece linked above, it has become a daily podcast called Planet Money which you can get free from Itunes.
One of the things which endeared Bill Clinton to me was his penchant for balanced budgets, surpluses even. Eight years of wild deficit spending are now bookended by another massive, emergency spending bill. The punditocracy have breathed a collective sigh of relief, and have returned home to see their pets, children, and significant others during daylight hours for the first time in two weeks. We've thrown a heap of money at the problem, and no doubt it is now solved.
But here's the thing- nobody, anywhere, knows if this will work. We are still improvising at a pace that doesn't allow for much reflection. Wall Street is having a hard time finding anyone to ring the bell opening the market on Monday, people not wanting to be associated with a possible ongoing disaster. But the stocks are only the surface ripples created by the monster lurking beneath the waves, the non-liquidity of the commercial paper markets. If you are one of the many still struggling to understand the madness of this debacle, I highly recommend this piece from This American Life, explaining the whole thing in a very approachable way.
Pay no attention to the screaming CNN headlines about the performance of Wall Street. Wait to see if banks resume loaning money to one another- that's the real, and only, marker of a resolution to yet another Republican-created disaster. And don't be astonished if we end up throwing another trillion at the beast two weeks from now.
Also, due to the rampant popularity of the radio piece linked above, it has become a daily podcast called Planet Money which you can get free from Itunes.
Debates Were Held
An interesting article from CNN lays out the differences in Biden and Palin’s speaking styles from the debate. What struck me the most was this:
The analysis by the Austin, Texas-based Global Language Monitor said Palin, governor of Alaska and the GOP vice presidential nominee, used the passive voice in 8 percent of her sentences, far more than the 5 percent used by the Democratic senator from Delaware.Passive voice, as they mention, is used to obscure the subject of a sentence: “Mistakes were made.” I’m not saying who made the mistakes, but there they are and we should move on without belaboring the point. I’m no great statistician, but it seems odd to me that 8% is really “far more” than the 5% that Biden used. What’s more interesting, the article implies, is the way that Palin used the passive voice to avoid mentioning George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. I know that Republicans are going out of their way to avoid being associated with the one time leader of their cult of personality, but isn’t it interesting that even Palin would resort to eliding their existence grammatically rather than have to deal with the consequences of eight years of Republican leadership? Actions and consequences, it seems, were referred to.
The analysis noted that the "passive voice can be used to deflect responsibility; Biden used active voice when referring to [Vice President Dick] Cheney and [President] Bush; Palin countered with passive deflections."
Friday, October 3, 2008
Contest in a Teacup
There is no doubt that according to the Oxford Rules, Sarah Palin had her lipstick handed to her last night by Joe Biden. The trouble is that the debate isn't run according to the well established conventions of that august body, and I suspect she did better with much of the audience not answering questions the way the moderator asked them than those of us blogging about it would care to believe.
However, it remains to be seen whether or not that matters anymore. Nothing she did last night seems likely to have advanced the McPalin campaign very much relative to Obiden, although she certainly could have contributed to losing it with another Couric-level debacle. On the morning after, all the anticipation of the Biden-Palin exchange seems curiously misplaced.
So we are left back where we were at this time yesterday, with I am guessing a small polling correction in McCain's favor as Palin demonstrates she is at least capable of memorizing talking points. If McCain is to have any hope of turning the election around, with the polls running against him and his campaign withdrawing from Michigan, we can expect increasingly desperate tactics as he tries to find something that will stick (other than attempting to expropriate the Obama campaign). We can also expect some sort of especially sleazy bombshells are being laid up for the 72 hours before voting day, although even that tactical chestnut may be mitigated by the fact that so many states are moving to early voting periods.
Palin probably reinforced her standing with Republicans last night, did no harm with independents, but failed to repeat the infusion of energy and purpose that accompanied her conference address. McCain needs something more consequential if he hopes to turn around the polling trends of the last two weeks.
However, it remains to be seen whether or not that matters anymore. Nothing she did last night seems likely to have advanced the McPalin campaign very much relative to Obiden, although she certainly could have contributed to losing it with another Couric-level debacle. On the morning after, all the anticipation of the Biden-Palin exchange seems curiously misplaced.
So we are left back where we were at this time yesterday, with I am guessing a small polling correction in McCain's favor as Palin demonstrates she is at least capable of memorizing talking points. If McCain is to have any hope of turning the election around, with the polls running against him and his campaign withdrawing from Michigan, we can expect increasingly desperate tactics as he tries to find something that will stick (other than attempting to expropriate the Obama campaign). We can also expect some sort of especially sleazy bombshells are being laid up for the 72 hours before voting day, although even that tactical chestnut may be mitigated by the fact that so many states are moving to early voting periods.
Palin probably reinforced her standing with Republicans last night, did no harm with independents, but failed to repeat the infusion of energy and purpose that accompanied her conference address. McCain needs something more consequential if he hopes to turn around the polling trends of the last two weeks.
Exceeding Expectations and Other Low Hanging Fruit
The debate last night proceeded pretty much exactly as I thought. Palin’s performance was uninspired and uninspiring unless you are already in the bag for the governor of Alaska. I think the conventional reaction so far has been pretty dead on. Palin clearly has little to no understanding of matters foreign or domestic. The format last night was a great favor to her. When Palin got into trouble with Couric and Gibson was on the follow up questions, where she was expected to rephrase and explain ideas and thoughts that she had learned by rote. The format last night gave her the opportunity to simply recite the talking points that have been carefully drilled into her, even if those rote responses didn’t answer the question that had been asked her. She didn’t fall down or drool on herself and I have no doubt that this will be the last time we see her in any setting that is not a stump speech in front of a carefully vetted crowd. There’s no margin for the McCain campaign in putting her out there – she can only make herself look like a fool.
I thought Joe Biden’s performance, especially in the early going, was uninspired. As the debate wore on, I felt he picked up steam and really got into the moment. He certainly “won” the debate on the merits, but this was never about “winning.” Everyone knows Biden is worlds smarter and more informed than Palin. All Palin had to do was do better than the exceedingly low expectations set for her. Mission accomplished.
Barring some sort of unforeseen disaster, I think Palin has stopped being a factor in the race. Not that she should, of course. But once the McCain campaign pulls the curtain in front of her, what is the media going to do? I can’t see them going into open revolt on one of the major party candidates a month before the election. I also think the rumors of Bristol Palin’s wedding happening before the election are absurd. There’s simply no way the McCain camp will want to put the spotlight back on her now that they’ve cleared this hurdle.
I thought Joe Biden’s performance, especially in the early going, was uninspired. As the debate wore on, I felt he picked up steam and really got into the moment. He certainly “won” the debate on the merits, but this was never about “winning.” Everyone knows Biden is worlds smarter and more informed than Palin. All Palin had to do was do better than the exceedingly low expectations set for her. Mission accomplished.
Barring some sort of unforeseen disaster, I think Palin has stopped being a factor in the race. Not that she should, of course. But once the McCain campaign pulls the curtain in front of her, what is the media going to do? I can’t see them going into open revolt on one of the major party candidates a month before the election. I also think the rumors of Bristol Palin’s wedding happening before the election are absurd. There’s simply no way the McCain camp will want to put the spotlight back on her now that they’ve cleared this hurdle.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Arguments and Expectations
Tonight’s the big debate. I’m looking forward to checking it out, although it’ll be on at about four o’clock in the morning here, so I’ll likely have to wait until tomorrow to see tonight’s debate. There are a lot of issues in play – Gwen Ifill, the specter of the big, old white guy picking on the attractive young(er) woman. I think, however, anyone expecting a kind of nationally televised schadenfruede-fueled meltdown is going to be disappointed. I agree with James Fallows who thinks that the expectations for Palin are so low that any performance she turns in that doesn’t include drooling and pratfalls is going to be treated as a victory over expectations. I don’t think this means Palin is going to deliver anything close to a successful performance – or even a coherent one – but I do think she’s going to do better than every expects.
Palin will get up there, read through her talking points, and that will be the end of it. Republicans will claim that Ifill was being overly harsh on the governor and that, regardless, Palin’s poor performance so far was all liberal media bias to begin with.
Palin will get up there, read through her talking points, and that will be the end of it. Republicans will claim that Ifill was being overly harsh on the governor and that, regardless, Palin’s poor performance so far was all liberal media bias to begin with.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
An Obama Wind
According to almost every poll imaginable, Obama is pulling into substantial leads in Florida and Ohio, and pulling ahead in a number of other states. Some numbers with explanation at Huffpo, and just reams of data for those of that persuasion here at RCP.
I think the interesting thing about the second link is that, I believe for the first time, Obama-Biden run the board, ahead in every poll. It's an awful lot of blue in that column.
Of course, the next debate is tomorrow, and while they are usually important, the relatively controlled nature of access to McPalin has infused them with increasing significance this year. One has to assume that each of them will result in relatively energetic adjustments to the numbers. One also has to assume that McCain won't get many more opportunities to do anything so stupid as suspend his campaign again in the next 34 days. But then, it's probably too late already- according to the Perot Doctrine, suspending your campaign at all is the kiss of death.
I think the interesting thing about the second link is that, I believe for the first time, Obama-Biden run the board, ahead in every poll. It's an awful lot of blue in that column.
Of course, the next debate is tomorrow, and while they are usually important, the relatively controlled nature of access to McPalin has infused them with increasing significance this year. One has to assume that each of them will result in relatively energetic adjustments to the numbers. One also has to assume that McCain won't get many more opportunities to do anything so stupid as suspend his campaign again in the next 34 days. But then, it's probably too late already- according to the Perot Doctrine, suspending your campaign at all is the kiss of death.
Russian Mirage
I really wanted to stay away, but this is too good.
So, CNN sent a film crew to the only part of Alaska from which Russian territory is visible with the naked eye. It's 500 miles west of Anchorage, in the middle of the Bering Sea, a windswept rock with 150 people, no television, and it is also a place Sarah Palin has NEVER BEEN. In fact, no governor of Alaska has ever visited this remote island.
What did she think she was seeing? It seems clear that she has been warily eying some part of US territory all these years, unless this whole line of argument is just complete BS. I realize the place obviously isn't exactly a haven of votes, but it does have 40% unemployment. You'd think someone would have seen fit to go look into that.
See the excellent video here.
So, CNN sent a film crew to the only part of Alaska from which Russian territory is visible with the naked eye. It's 500 miles west of Anchorage, in the middle of the Bering Sea, a windswept rock with 150 people, no television, and it is also a place Sarah Palin has NEVER BEEN. In fact, no governor of Alaska has ever visited this remote island.
What did she think she was seeing? It seems clear that she has been warily eying some part of US territory all these years, unless this whole line of argument is just complete BS. I realize the place obviously isn't exactly a haven of votes, but it does have 40% unemployment. You'd think someone would have seen fit to go look into that.
See the excellent video here.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
