And so we drift, or is hurdle perhaps a better word? into that golden space of time where the most insane of political allegations can be directed at one's opponent, with reasonable confidence that there won't be time to disprove them until just after the election, leaving you the longest possible time before you have to run for anything again.
I should probably put more time into coining the perfect phrase for this period- happy hour, perhaps. Actually, I think I like the Twilight Zone, although someone probably still owns the copyright to that (please don't sue me- I'm really not worth it).
It's appropriate, because this is the period where you are rewarded for just the right sort of lie- of sufficient scale to flip huge numbers of voters, aimed at the sort of character assassination that lingers even when evidence mounts that the allegation probably isn't legitimate.
I thinking here of, say, "evidence" of attendance at Obama's childhood mosque, or "allegations" that McCain is secretly a vegetarian. If you're reading this, you probably don't require anything like this much explanation of what I'm getting at, so I'll stop providing it.
But if either campaign has been saving up the loony juice for their last big push, it's time to start the keg stands. On the one hand, Obama may feel comfortably enough ahead...well, to be frank, I'm trying to be impartial, but Obama has run the sort of campaign that makes this sort of thing almost unthinkable from him.
Which leaves McPalin. Despite all his rhetoric to the contrary, it's hard to believe that McCain is really as confident of victory as he keeps claiming, and any move like this would have to tarnish not only the tatters of his reputation, but any hopes Palin has of emerging as the leader of the opposition in the upcoming months. Then again, I've never run for President, and the sort of motivation you must need to do it probably complicates rational analysis. And McCain has a reputation for comebacks, not least in his own mind, and seems to leave a great deal of this sort of decision making in his staffer's questionable hands.
Let's hope there's nothing more to say about this between now and the 4th. We can only wait and see.
Friday, October 31, 2008
D'oh
Following Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama, I suggested that he was speaking more to his own legacy than to any real people out there in voterland, I believe going so far as to suggest that there couldn't possibly be any undecideds left in Washington DC.
I stand Corrected.
Reagan Chief of Staff Endorses Obama.
I stand Corrected.
Reagan Chief of Staff Endorses Obama.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
...by the content of his character...
So here's an NYT article addressing the statistical landscape as we head into the final week. Among the most striking outcomes is this one:
Some perceptions of race are changing, with a marked increase in the number of people who say they believe that white and black people have an equal chance of getting ahead in America today.
The article goes on to detail the difficult landscape for a McCain victory over the next seven days, in case that story remains new or novel to you. Incredible, however, that Obama is leveling perceptions of the racial landscape in measurable ways without having even been elected yet.
**update**
On the other hand, the Houston Chronicle reports that 23% of Texans think Obama is a muslim. The more I think about that, the more incredible it seems. How, at this point, could you possibly still have that misconception? Little short of a willful desire not to believe what you hear on TV, a self-selected media bubble so narrow as to exclude the vast majority of the world's media, or residence under a rock. The mind reels.
Some perceptions of race are changing, with a marked increase in the number of people who say they believe that white and black people have an equal chance of getting ahead in America today.
The article goes on to detail the difficult landscape for a McCain victory over the next seven days, in case that story remains new or novel to you. Incredible, however, that Obama is leveling perceptions of the racial landscape in measurable ways without having even been elected yet.
**update**
On the other hand, the Houston Chronicle reports that 23% of Texans think Obama is a muslim. The more I think about that, the more incredible it seems. How, at this point, could you possibly still have that misconception? Little short of a willful desire not to believe what you hear on TV, a self-selected media bubble so narrow as to exclude the vast majority of the world's media, or residence under a rock. The mind reels.
Interesting Things from Around the Internet
This is a fascinating story about a study done on voting patterns in Michigan. Several different groups of voters were treated to different persuasions to vote via mail: nothing at all, appeals to civic duty and finally the threat of public shaming. Guess which one worked the best?
Also on the voting tip, here’s a New York Times editorial discussing the success of early voting in the states that have adopted it. It seems strange to me that we do all these things – voting on Tuesday, making registration difficult – not for any good reason, or because we think voting should be difficult, but because for some reason Americans hate the idea of certain kinds of change – usually change that involves public institutions – or milk jugs, I guess. At what point do we finally sit down and address this absurdity in a serious, progressive way?
The NASA probe to Mercury took a bunch of pictures in a recent flyby, expanding our knowledge of the closest planet to the sun, but still leaving a number of surprising gaps in our knowledge: the western hemisphere of the planet is 30% smoother than the other, it’s covered in an unidentified substance the scientists call “blue material” (oh, you scientists and your clever names!) and it looks like Mercury has shrunk significantly as its interior has cooled. All interesting enough, but it sounds like the real interesting stuff will happen in 2011 when the probe enters stable orbit around Mercury. Another success for the space program, and another blow against manned space exploration (sadly).
And finally, Daniel Larison has a perceptive take on that most frustrating of creatures, the undecided voter. I agree with PW that sitting through that Obama infomercial was pretty painful, but I think Larison was right: this is closer to what the undecideds want. Which is truly kind of frightening. It started me wondering, the problem is clearly not that people don’t understand the candidates positions. Even when they might be a little bit fuzzy or a little bit misleading, it isn’t hard to assess the positions of both candidates and come to a rational decision on them. Despite what they say, undecided voters don’t want to know more about “issues,” because they don’t understand and don’t care about issues. So: what do we do? How does democracy function when a large portion of the electorate (and when we’re talking about undecideds, we’re talking about people with no interest who still vote – to say nothing of those who don’t care and don’t bother) just don’t care about rational decision making? Are their opinions (and votes) worth as much as ideologues? Or more? I don’t have any answers, but it certainly seems to me like an important question.
Also on the voting tip, here’s a New York Times editorial discussing the success of early voting in the states that have adopted it. It seems strange to me that we do all these things – voting on Tuesday, making registration difficult – not for any good reason, or because we think voting should be difficult, but because for some reason Americans hate the idea of certain kinds of change – usually change that involves public institutions – or milk jugs, I guess. At what point do we finally sit down and address this absurdity in a serious, progressive way?
The NASA probe to Mercury took a bunch of pictures in a recent flyby, expanding our knowledge of the closest planet to the sun, but still leaving a number of surprising gaps in our knowledge: the western hemisphere of the planet is 30% smoother than the other, it’s covered in an unidentified substance the scientists call “blue material” (oh, you scientists and your clever names!) and it looks like Mercury has shrunk significantly as its interior has cooled. All interesting enough, but it sounds like the real interesting stuff will happen in 2011 when the probe enters stable orbit around Mercury. Another success for the space program, and another blow against manned space exploration (sadly).
And finally, Daniel Larison has a perceptive take on that most frustrating of creatures, the undecided voter. I agree with PW that sitting through that Obama infomercial was pretty painful, but I think Larison was right: this is closer to what the undecideds want. Which is truly kind of frightening. It started me wondering, the problem is clearly not that people don’t understand the candidates positions. Even when they might be a little bit fuzzy or a little bit misleading, it isn’t hard to assess the positions of both candidates and come to a rational decision on them. Despite what they say, undecided voters don’t want to know more about “issues,” because they don’t understand and don’t care about issues. So: what do we do? How does democracy function when a large portion of the electorate (and when we’re talking about undecideds, we’re talking about people with no interest who still vote – to say nothing of those who don’t care and don’t bother) just don’t care about rational decision making? Are their opinions (and votes) worth as much as ideologues? Or more? I don’t have any answers, but it certainly seems to me like an important question.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Please, Don't Quit Your Day Job
I watched the Obama ad. You can too, here.
Good lord. I can't imagine what his satellite television channel must be like.
I won't lie, this was hard to sit through. Most of it was pitched at the level of the worst moments of a state of the union address. You know the ones, where the president pauses to acknowledge some "real" person uncomfortably seated in the gallery with the secretary of state and his wife? (what do you chat about in that crowd?)
I would much rather have seen Obama actually pull out some graphs, Ross Perot style, and wade into his economic plan, or suggest some of the programs likely to be modified during his line-by-line review of the federal budget than attempt to embrace real people worried about the price of milk. He will have to worry about the price of milk, but being that personal about it isn't a good use of his limited time. The idea that it would be actually seems a little condescending. Heck, the cuts away to earlier live events at least let you revisit some of the seminal moments from earlier in his campaign, and made him look far more presidential than he did wandering around the hotel from Twin Peaks with an American flag lurking over his shoulder.
I return to a point made earlier- the real intention behind this ad was to dominate (purchase?) a news cycle, and to underscore that Obama has more money than God. It must be tearing the McCain people up something horrible to know they haven't the funding to respond.
Good lord. I can't imagine what his satellite television channel must be like.
I won't lie, this was hard to sit through. Most of it was pitched at the level of the worst moments of a state of the union address. You know the ones, where the president pauses to acknowledge some "real" person uncomfortably seated in the gallery with the secretary of state and his wife? (what do you chat about in that crowd?)
I would much rather have seen Obama actually pull out some graphs, Ross Perot style, and wade into his economic plan, or suggest some of the programs likely to be modified during his line-by-line review of the federal budget than attempt to embrace real people worried about the price of milk. He will have to worry about the price of milk, but being that personal about it isn't a good use of his limited time. The idea that it would be actually seems a little condescending. Heck, the cuts away to earlier live events at least let you revisit some of the seminal moments from earlier in his campaign, and made him look far more presidential than he did wandering around the hotel from Twin Peaks with an American flag lurking over his shoulder.
I return to a point made earlier- the real intention behind this ad was to dominate (purchase?) a news cycle, and to underscore that Obama has more money than God. It must be tearing the McCain people up something horrible to know they haven't the funding to respond.
My Republican Party
OK, so this is a little bit immature, not very objective, and makes only a minimal contribution to the Great National Debate.
On the other hand, I enjoy dark humor.
My Republican Party.
After all, the Pilgrims really didn't need a social safety net.
On the other hand, I enjoy dark humor.
My Republican Party.
After all, the Pilgrims really didn't need a social safety net.
Vote For Me and Buy This Food Dehydrator
The Obama campaign has put together a half hour infomercial that they’re going to broadcast tonight on a bunch of major networks at eight o’clock tonight. It’s an interesting gambit. As this New York Times story says, the last time someone did something like this was Ross Perot in 1992.
It’s an interesting move, and it really highlights just how much money Obama has been able to raise. It’s incredible what Obama’s done. It also makes me wonder how long it will be until some big money players decide to really get in there and shake an election up. What are we going to do when someone puts down a billion dollars to get a candidate elected? I doubt that McCain is the candidate to inspire a crazy conservative billionaire to do it, but I wouldn’t discount the possibility, especially after the drubbing Obama looks to deliver McCain next week. Bobby Jindal ’12, brought to you by the Coors Corporation.
Anyone planning on watching this thing? As much as I like Obama, it sounds like the kind of saccharine, over produced campaign pap I can’t abide. And, since I’m out of the country anyways, it won’t be hard to avoid. I might try and catch it online tomorrow for the live portion, though. It could be Obama riding around on a unicorn on the Big Rock Candy Mountain with cherubs flying around his head and it would be worth it to me, just for this priceless bit of childish whining from the McCain campaign:
It’s an interesting move, and it really highlights just how much money Obama has been able to raise. It’s incredible what Obama’s done. It also makes me wonder how long it will be until some big money players decide to really get in there and shake an election up. What are we going to do when someone puts down a billion dollars to get a candidate elected? I doubt that McCain is the candidate to inspire a crazy conservative billionaire to do it, but I wouldn’t discount the possibility, especially after the drubbing Obama looks to deliver McCain next week. Bobby Jindal ’12, brought to you by the Coors Corporation.
Anyone planning on watching this thing? As much as I like Obama, it sounds like the kind of saccharine, over produced campaign pap I can’t abide. And, since I’m out of the country anyways, it won’t be hard to avoid. I might try and catch it online tomorrow for the live portion, though. It could be Obama riding around on a unicorn on the Big Rock Candy Mountain with cherubs flying around his head and it would be worth it to me, just for this priceless bit of childish whining from the McCain campaign:
The McCain campaign has seized on the advertisement as excessive, with Mr. McCain pointing to reports that Mr. Obama’s infomercial would bump back the World Series on Fox by 15 minutes. “No one will delay the World Series with an infomercial when I’m president,” he said, in Hershey, Pa.
Reduxing Camelot?
As various (more responsible?) media sources have begun to play past the election and assume an Obama victory, they are beginning to ramp up production of the sort of mythology that transforms a president into an icon.
Submitted for your consideration:
1. This photo shoot from Pennsylvania in which Omama stumps in jeans and a fleece-like jacket, in the rain. It isn't that difficult to make a politician look cool in a photograph, but when's the last time you saw someone try to do it? Further, does this remind anyone else of the episode of the West Wing where Martin Sheen gives a speech after walking through a downpour?
2. The USA Today, a publication I generally reserve for those days when I want to see terrifically complex ideas reduced to pie charts, runs this kinda predictable piece about how this election is The Most Important Election in History. Or something like that.
On the one hand, media like this panders to a desire to take ourselves seriously. Few people like to be reminded of their own insignificance. On the other, media like this is where legends come from. Obama hasn't won the election yet, and certainly hasn't spent one second in the oval office, but he's already ensconced himself in the American political landscape. From the very beginning, when the Kennedy's endorsed him, there has been an effort to place him squarely in their tradition. There is no indication of that trend doing anything other than accelerating. This image can't possibly be sustained when informed by actual decisions. Going to be a rough hundred days, I suspect.
Submitted for your consideration:
1. This photo shoot from Pennsylvania in which Omama stumps in jeans and a fleece-like jacket, in the rain. It isn't that difficult to make a politician look cool in a photograph, but when's the last time you saw someone try to do it? Further, does this remind anyone else of the episode of the West Wing where Martin Sheen gives a speech after walking through a downpour?
2. The USA Today, a publication I generally reserve for those days when I want to see terrifically complex ideas reduced to pie charts, runs this kinda predictable piece about how this election is The Most Important Election in History. Or something like that.
On the one hand, media like this panders to a desire to take ourselves seriously. Few people like to be reminded of their own insignificance. On the other, media like this is where legends come from. Obama hasn't won the election yet, and certainly hasn't spent one second in the oval office, but he's already ensconced himself in the American political landscape. From the very beginning, when the Kennedy's endorsed him, there has been an effort to place him squarely in their tradition. There is no indication of that trend doing anything other than accelerating. This image can't possibly be sustained when informed by actual decisions. Going to be a rough hundred days, I suspect.
Newton and Leibniz
If you’ve ever studied calculus, perhaps you’d be interested in who you have to either thank or blame for the experience. The answer to the question is not quite as simple as it might seem, but is pretty fascinating, delving into the world of the 17th Century natural philosophers (the word scientist only came much later) such as Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz. Wired has a brief post discussing Leibniz’s creation of the integral sign ∫. It’s pretty fascinating stuff, full of crazy characters (Robert Hooke is my favorite), mortal feuds and a transition period from the wild and wooly medieval view of the world to something much closer to our own view (though still deeply strange).
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
McCain Campaign Cracks Up, Sober Reflections upon Mortality Ensue
The collapse seems to have begun in earnest, with members of the various McCain/Palin factions jockeying for post-election position in the GOP civil wars that will be occupying us through the new year and beyond. Andrew Sullivan points to this analysis by George Stephanopoulos that has an interesting quote.
Incidentally, when did George Stephanopoulos get so old? The picture of him on the page above makes him look like William Sanderson in Blade Runner. I guess it’s been a while since I remember him from the Clinton administration, but jeez.
But some McCain camp insiders tell ABC News they simply couldn't put Palin out in front of the media any more than they did because she wasn't ready.While I’m by no means a huge fan of John McCain, I’d have to say I have an underlying sympathy for his version of events. There’s been zero evidence so far that Palin could have become ready no matter how much handling she’d had. The absurd position from Palin’s partisans that they were mistaken in not letting her be Palinesque enough is idiot. Can Palin have been any more Palin than she has in the last eight weeks, short of shooting a moose and communicating in grunts and expressive gestures? How deep can the Palin run? Has there been any point in the last two months where you’ve looked at the news and thought, “John McCain needs to let that young go getter Sarah Palin out here to speak her mind. Enough with her being a delicate, blushing flower, cowed by the grim old men of Washington!”? I have to doubt it.
The Palin camp is fighting back, arguing that if the McCain campaign had just let Sarah Palin be Sarah Palin, she would have done just fine on her own.
Incidentally, when did George Stephanopoulos get so old? The picture of him on the page above makes him look like William Sanderson in Blade Runner. I guess it’s been a while since I remember him from the Clinton administration, but jeez.
Canned Salmon
TSBP’s favorite senator, Ted Stevens, was convicted yesterday of all the charges against him. Of course, being a convicted felon doesn’t bar you from serving in the senate, so the good people of Alaska still have a chance to return the Republican Party’s longest serving senator for his ninth senate term. Can a senator serve from prison? We may soon know the answer. Following the trial has been something of a let down after the much more interesting investigative phase, but anything that can get the New York Times to use the phrase “drinking and fishing buddy” is alright with me.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Where Art Thou?
Still in DC, and doing as well as can be expected. I'm finishing up some work this evening, but will begin posting daily starting tomorrow. I plan on shaking off the rust in the run-up to the election and returning to the witless dialogue and ubiquitous commentary to which you had all grown accustomed.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
