Most political observers expect Obama to announce his running mate in the immediate future (almost certainly before the Olympics begin on August 8th). The WaPo had a front page article today talking about those widely believed to be front-runners.
My prediction is Indiana senator Evan Bayh. As I posted recently, I think Obama sees this race (correctly or not) as his to lose. Above all, he's trying to avoid mistakes -- to be careful. Given the choice between boring and bold, he's going to choose the former. Because of this, I think some of the usual suspects don't have a snowball's chance in hell. The clouds of an infidelity scandal seem to be hovering around John Edwards. The Clinton's throw too many new ingredients into the stew, and threaten to change the focus of the Obama campaign away from the actual candidate, and Joe Biden is notoriously hard to keep on message. Jim Webb (who doesn't really seem to want the job) and Sam Nunn have both said too many stupid things in the past.
That leaves only Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, and Bayh. These choices would be a little more of the traditional politic, pick-a-candidate-that-helps-you-win-a-swing-state, strategy. It conspicuously avoids Obama picking a candidate that helps him with his foreign policy bona fides, perhaps slightly ramping up the McCain attacks on this front (which weren't ever going to stop, regardless of his VP pick). And, this is obviously conjecture, but I think Obama sees foreign policy as one of his strengths in comparison to McCain (who routinely screws up basic facts as they relate to foreign affairs), especially after his most recent trip and practical endorsement by some of the most important heads of state in the world.
So why Bayh over Kaine? Bayh is simply the most vanilla, likable, politically moderate person that's ever been born. And, he's extremely popular in Indiana, a state that I believe he could deliver, whereas I think Virginia, while winnable, is more polarized and I'm less sure Kaine puts Obama over the top there. I also think Bayh is the slightly more recognizable national figure.
I guess we'll see soon.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
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1 comment:
So you're counting out Sebelius? She seems like a fairly safe pick, too.
It seems interesting to me, though, that we're talking about a campaign that might not have a Southerner for once. Sebelius and Bayh are both Midwesterners, even if they both come from some pretty conservative states. You don't count the appeal of having an additional white, Southern man on the ticket? I suppose that Obama's strengths in certain segments of the South kind of preclude that kind of appeal to the non-Obama supporting segment of the population.
Either way, I think you're right: Obama's going to play it safe, try to pick someone who's not going to upstage him, and someone who's going to be as vanilla as possible.
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