And so we drift, or is hurdle perhaps a better word? into that golden space of time where the most insane of political allegations can be directed at one's opponent, with reasonable confidence that there won't be time to disprove them until just after the election, leaving you the longest possible time before you have to run for anything again.
I should probably put more time into coining the perfect phrase for this period- happy hour, perhaps. Actually, I think I like the Twilight Zone, although someone probably still owns the copyright to that (please don't sue me- I'm really not worth it).
It's appropriate, because this is the period where you are rewarded for just the right sort of lie- of sufficient scale to flip huge numbers of voters, aimed at the sort of character assassination that lingers even when evidence mounts that the allegation probably isn't legitimate.
I thinking here of, say, "evidence" of attendance at Obama's childhood mosque, or "allegations" that McCain is secretly a vegetarian. If you're reading this, you probably don't require anything like this much explanation of what I'm getting at, so I'll stop providing it.
But if either campaign has been saving up the loony juice for their last big push, it's time to start the keg stands. On the one hand, Obama may feel comfortably enough ahead...well, to be frank, I'm trying to be impartial, but Obama has run the sort of campaign that makes this sort of thing almost unthinkable from him.
Which leaves McPalin. Despite all his rhetoric to the contrary, it's hard to believe that McCain is really as confident of victory as he keeps claiming, and any move like this would have to tarnish not only the tatters of his reputation, but any hopes Palin has of emerging as the leader of the opposition in the upcoming months. Then again, I've never run for President, and the sort of motivation you must need to do it probably complicates rational analysis. And McCain has a reputation for comebacks, not least in his own mind, and seems to leave a great deal of this sort of decision making in his staffer's questionable hands.
Let's hope there's nothing more to say about this between now and the 4th. We can only wait and see.
Friday, October 31, 2008
D'oh
Following Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama, I suggested that he was speaking more to his own legacy than to any real people out there in voterland, I believe going so far as to suggest that there couldn't possibly be any undecideds left in Washington DC.
I stand Corrected.
Reagan Chief of Staff Endorses Obama.
I stand Corrected.
Reagan Chief of Staff Endorses Obama.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
...by the content of his character...
So here's an NYT article addressing the statistical landscape as we head into the final week. Among the most striking outcomes is this one:
Some perceptions of race are changing, with a marked increase in the number of people who say they believe that white and black people have an equal chance of getting ahead in America today.
The article goes on to detail the difficult landscape for a McCain victory over the next seven days, in case that story remains new or novel to you. Incredible, however, that Obama is leveling perceptions of the racial landscape in measurable ways without having even been elected yet.
**update**
On the other hand, the Houston Chronicle reports that 23% of Texans think Obama is a muslim. The more I think about that, the more incredible it seems. How, at this point, could you possibly still have that misconception? Little short of a willful desire not to believe what you hear on TV, a self-selected media bubble so narrow as to exclude the vast majority of the world's media, or residence under a rock. The mind reels.
Some perceptions of race are changing, with a marked increase in the number of people who say they believe that white and black people have an equal chance of getting ahead in America today.
The article goes on to detail the difficult landscape for a McCain victory over the next seven days, in case that story remains new or novel to you. Incredible, however, that Obama is leveling perceptions of the racial landscape in measurable ways without having even been elected yet.
**update**
On the other hand, the Houston Chronicle reports that 23% of Texans think Obama is a muslim. The more I think about that, the more incredible it seems. How, at this point, could you possibly still have that misconception? Little short of a willful desire not to believe what you hear on TV, a self-selected media bubble so narrow as to exclude the vast majority of the world's media, or residence under a rock. The mind reels.
Interesting Things from Around the Internet
This is a fascinating story about a study done on voting patterns in Michigan. Several different groups of voters were treated to different persuasions to vote via mail: nothing at all, appeals to civic duty and finally the threat of public shaming. Guess which one worked the best?
Also on the voting tip, here’s a New York Times editorial discussing the success of early voting in the states that have adopted it. It seems strange to me that we do all these things – voting on Tuesday, making registration difficult – not for any good reason, or because we think voting should be difficult, but because for some reason Americans hate the idea of certain kinds of change – usually change that involves public institutions – or milk jugs, I guess. At what point do we finally sit down and address this absurdity in a serious, progressive way?
The NASA probe to Mercury took a bunch of pictures in a recent flyby, expanding our knowledge of the closest planet to the sun, but still leaving a number of surprising gaps in our knowledge: the western hemisphere of the planet is 30% smoother than the other, it’s covered in an unidentified substance the scientists call “blue material” (oh, you scientists and your clever names!) and it looks like Mercury has shrunk significantly as its interior has cooled. All interesting enough, but it sounds like the real interesting stuff will happen in 2011 when the probe enters stable orbit around Mercury. Another success for the space program, and another blow against manned space exploration (sadly).
And finally, Daniel Larison has a perceptive take on that most frustrating of creatures, the undecided voter. I agree with PW that sitting through that Obama infomercial was pretty painful, but I think Larison was right: this is closer to what the undecideds want. Which is truly kind of frightening. It started me wondering, the problem is clearly not that people don’t understand the candidates positions. Even when they might be a little bit fuzzy or a little bit misleading, it isn’t hard to assess the positions of both candidates and come to a rational decision on them. Despite what they say, undecided voters don’t want to know more about “issues,” because they don’t understand and don’t care about issues. So: what do we do? How does democracy function when a large portion of the electorate (and when we’re talking about undecideds, we’re talking about people with no interest who still vote – to say nothing of those who don’t care and don’t bother) just don’t care about rational decision making? Are their opinions (and votes) worth as much as ideologues? Or more? I don’t have any answers, but it certainly seems to me like an important question.
Also on the voting tip, here’s a New York Times editorial discussing the success of early voting in the states that have adopted it. It seems strange to me that we do all these things – voting on Tuesday, making registration difficult – not for any good reason, or because we think voting should be difficult, but because for some reason Americans hate the idea of certain kinds of change – usually change that involves public institutions – or milk jugs, I guess. At what point do we finally sit down and address this absurdity in a serious, progressive way?
The NASA probe to Mercury took a bunch of pictures in a recent flyby, expanding our knowledge of the closest planet to the sun, but still leaving a number of surprising gaps in our knowledge: the western hemisphere of the planet is 30% smoother than the other, it’s covered in an unidentified substance the scientists call “blue material” (oh, you scientists and your clever names!) and it looks like Mercury has shrunk significantly as its interior has cooled. All interesting enough, but it sounds like the real interesting stuff will happen in 2011 when the probe enters stable orbit around Mercury. Another success for the space program, and another blow against manned space exploration (sadly).
And finally, Daniel Larison has a perceptive take on that most frustrating of creatures, the undecided voter. I agree with PW that sitting through that Obama infomercial was pretty painful, but I think Larison was right: this is closer to what the undecideds want. Which is truly kind of frightening. It started me wondering, the problem is clearly not that people don’t understand the candidates positions. Even when they might be a little bit fuzzy or a little bit misleading, it isn’t hard to assess the positions of both candidates and come to a rational decision on them. Despite what they say, undecided voters don’t want to know more about “issues,” because they don’t understand and don’t care about issues. So: what do we do? How does democracy function when a large portion of the electorate (and when we’re talking about undecideds, we’re talking about people with no interest who still vote – to say nothing of those who don’t care and don’t bother) just don’t care about rational decision making? Are their opinions (and votes) worth as much as ideologues? Or more? I don’t have any answers, but it certainly seems to me like an important question.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Please, Don't Quit Your Day Job
I watched the Obama ad. You can too, here.
Good lord. I can't imagine what his satellite television channel must be like.
I won't lie, this was hard to sit through. Most of it was pitched at the level of the worst moments of a state of the union address. You know the ones, where the president pauses to acknowledge some "real" person uncomfortably seated in the gallery with the secretary of state and his wife? (what do you chat about in that crowd?)
I would much rather have seen Obama actually pull out some graphs, Ross Perot style, and wade into his economic plan, or suggest some of the programs likely to be modified during his line-by-line review of the federal budget than attempt to embrace real people worried about the price of milk. He will have to worry about the price of milk, but being that personal about it isn't a good use of his limited time. The idea that it would be actually seems a little condescending. Heck, the cuts away to earlier live events at least let you revisit some of the seminal moments from earlier in his campaign, and made him look far more presidential than he did wandering around the hotel from Twin Peaks with an American flag lurking over his shoulder.
I return to a point made earlier- the real intention behind this ad was to dominate (purchase?) a news cycle, and to underscore that Obama has more money than God. It must be tearing the McCain people up something horrible to know they haven't the funding to respond.
Good lord. I can't imagine what his satellite television channel must be like.
I won't lie, this was hard to sit through. Most of it was pitched at the level of the worst moments of a state of the union address. You know the ones, where the president pauses to acknowledge some "real" person uncomfortably seated in the gallery with the secretary of state and his wife? (what do you chat about in that crowd?)
I would much rather have seen Obama actually pull out some graphs, Ross Perot style, and wade into his economic plan, or suggest some of the programs likely to be modified during his line-by-line review of the federal budget than attempt to embrace real people worried about the price of milk. He will have to worry about the price of milk, but being that personal about it isn't a good use of his limited time. The idea that it would be actually seems a little condescending. Heck, the cuts away to earlier live events at least let you revisit some of the seminal moments from earlier in his campaign, and made him look far more presidential than he did wandering around the hotel from Twin Peaks with an American flag lurking over his shoulder.
I return to a point made earlier- the real intention behind this ad was to dominate (purchase?) a news cycle, and to underscore that Obama has more money than God. It must be tearing the McCain people up something horrible to know they haven't the funding to respond.
My Republican Party
OK, so this is a little bit immature, not very objective, and makes only a minimal contribution to the Great National Debate.
On the other hand, I enjoy dark humor.
My Republican Party.
After all, the Pilgrims really didn't need a social safety net.
On the other hand, I enjoy dark humor.
My Republican Party.
After all, the Pilgrims really didn't need a social safety net.
Vote For Me and Buy This Food Dehydrator
The Obama campaign has put together a half hour infomercial that they’re going to broadcast tonight on a bunch of major networks at eight o’clock tonight. It’s an interesting gambit. As this New York Times story says, the last time someone did something like this was Ross Perot in 1992.
It’s an interesting move, and it really highlights just how much money Obama has been able to raise. It’s incredible what Obama’s done. It also makes me wonder how long it will be until some big money players decide to really get in there and shake an election up. What are we going to do when someone puts down a billion dollars to get a candidate elected? I doubt that McCain is the candidate to inspire a crazy conservative billionaire to do it, but I wouldn’t discount the possibility, especially after the drubbing Obama looks to deliver McCain next week. Bobby Jindal ’12, brought to you by the Coors Corporation.
Anyone planning on watching this thing? As much as I like Obama, it sounds like the kind of saccharine, over produced campaign pap I can’t abide. And, since I’m out of the country anyways, it won’t be hard to avoid. I might try and catch it online tomorrow for the live portion, though. It could be Obama riding around on a unicorn on the Big Rock Candy Mountain with cherubs flying around his head and it would be worth it to me, just for this priceless bit of childish whining from the McCain campaign:
It’s an interesting move, and it really highlights just how much money Obama has been able to raise. It’s incredible what Obama’s done. It also makes me wonder how long it will be until some big money players decide to really get in there and shake an election up. What are we going to do when someone puts down a billion dollars to get a candidate elected? I doubt that McCain is the candidate to inspire a crazy conservative billionaire to do it, but I wouldn’t discount the possibility, especially after the drubbing Obama looks to deliver McCain next week. Bobby Jindal ’12, brought to you by the Coors Corporation.
Anyone planning on watching this thing? As much as I like Obama, it sounds like the kind of saccharine, over produced campaign pap I can’t abide. And, since I’m out of the country anyways, it won’t be hard to avoid. I might try and catch it online tomorrow for the live portion, though. It could be Obama riding around on a unicorn on the Big Rock Candy Mountain with cherubs flying around his head and it would be worth it to me, just for this priceless bit of childish whining from the McCain campaign:
The McCain campaign has seized on the advertisement as excessive, with Mr. McCain pointing to reports that Mr. Obama’s infomercial would bump back the World Series on Fox by 15 minutes. “No one will delay the World Series with an infomercial when I’m president,” he said, in Hershey, Pa.
Reduxing Camelot?
As various (more responsible?) media sources have begun to play past the election and assume an Obama victory, they are beginning to ramp up production of the sort of mythology that transforms a president into an icon.
Submitted for your consideration:
1. This photo shoot from Pennsylvania in which Omama stumps in jeans and a fleece-like jacket, in the rain. It isn't that difficult to make a politician look cool in a photograph, but when's the last time you saw someone try to do it? Further, does this remind anyone else of the episode of the West Wing where Martin Sheen gives a speech after walking through a downpour?
2. The USA Today, a publication I generally reserve for those days when I want to see terrifically complex ideas reduced to pie charts, runs this kinda predictable piece about how this election is The Most Important Election in History. Or something like that.
On the one hand, media like this panders to a desire to take ourselves seriously. Few people like to be reminded of their own insignificance. On the other, media like this is where legends come from. Obama hasn't won the election yet, and certainly hasn't spent one second in the oval office, but he's already ensconced himself in the American political landscape. From the very beginning, when the Kennedy's endorsed him, there has been an effort to place him squarely in their tradition. There is no indication of that trend doing anything other than accelerating. This image can't possibly be sustained when informed by actual decisions. Going to be a rough hundred days, I suspect.
Submitted for your consideration:
1. This photo shoot from Pennsylvania in which Omama stumps in jeans and a fleece-like jacket, in the rain. It isn't that difficult to make a politician look cool in a photograph, but when's the last time you saw someone try to do it? Further, does this remind anyone else of the episode of the West Wing where Martin Sheen gives a speech after walking through a downpour?
2. The USA Today, a publication I generally reserve for those days when I want to see terrifically complex ideas reduced to pie charts, runs this kinda predictable piece about how this election is The Most Important Election in History. Or something like that.
On the one hand, media like this panders to a desire to take ourselves seriously. Few people like to be reminded of their own insignificance. On the other, media like this is where legends come from. Obama hasn't won the election yet, and certainly hasn't spent one second in the oval office, but he's already ensconced himself in the American political landscape. From the very beginning, when the Kennedy's endorsed him, there has been an effort to place him squarely in their tradition. There is no indication of that trend doing anything other than accelerating. This image can't possibly be sustained when informed by actual decisions. Going to be a rough hundred days, I suspect.
Newton and Leibniz
If you’ve ever studied calculus, perhaps you’d be interested in who you have to either thank or blame for the experience. The answer to the question is not quite as simple as it might seem, but is pretty fascinating, delving into the world of the 17th Century natural philosophers (the word scientist only came much later) such as Isaac Newton and Gottfried Leibniz. Wired has a brief post discussing Leibniz’s creation of the integral sign ∫. It’s pretty fascinating stuff, full of crazy characters (Robert Hooke is my favorite), mortal feuds and a transition period from the wild and wooly medieval view of the world to something much closer to our own view (though still deeply strange).
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
McCain Campaign Cracks Up, Sober Reflections upon Mortality Ensue
The collapse seems to have begun in earnest, with members of the various McCain/Palin factions jockeying for post-election position in the GOP civil wars that will be occupying us through the new year and beyond. Andrew Sullivan points to this analysis by George Stephanopoulos that has an interesting quote.
Incidentally, when did George Stephanopoulos get so old? The picture of him on the page above makes him look like William Sanderson in Blade Runner. I guess it’s been a while since I remember him from the Clinton administration, but jeez.
But some McCain camp insiders tell ABC News they simply couldn't put Palin out in front of the media any more than they did because she wasn't ready.While I’m by no means a huge fan of John McCain, I’d have to say I have an underlying sympathy for his version of events. There’s been zero evidence so far that Palin could have become ready no matter how much handling she’d had. The absurd position from Palin’s partisans that they were mistaken in not letting her be Palinesque enough is idiot. Can Palin have been any more Palin than she has in the last eight weeks, short of shooting a moose and communicating in grunts and expressive gestures? How deep can the Palin run? Has there been any point in the last two months where you’ve looked at the news and thought, “John McCain needs to let that young go getter Sarah Palin out here to speak her mind. Enough with her being a delicate, blushing flower, cowed by the grim old men of Washington!”? I have to doubt it.
The Palin camp is fighting back, arguing that if the McCain campaign had just let Sarah Palin be Sarah Palin, she would have done just fine on her own.
Incidentally, when did George Stephanopoulos get so old? The picture of him on the page above makes him look like William Sanderson in Blade Runner. I guess it’s been a while since I remember him from the Clinton administration, but jeez.
Canned Salmon
TSBP’s favorite senator, Ted Stevens, was convicted yesterday of all the charges against him. Of course, being a convicted felon doesn’t bar you from serving in the senate, so the good people of Alaska still have a chance to return the Republican Party’s longest serving senator for his ninth senate term. Can a senator serve from prison? We may soon know the answer. Following the trial has been something of a let down after the much more interesting investigative phase, but anything that can get the New York Times to use the phrase “drinking and fishing buddy” is alright with me.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Where Art Thou?
Still in DC, and doing as well as can be expected. I'm finishing up some work this evening, but will begin posting daily starting tomorrow. I plan on shaking off the rust in the run-up to the election and returning to the witless dialogue and ubiquitous commentary to which you had all grown accustomed.
The Impossible Task and the Incompetent Candidate
Ross Douthat brings to our attention a monologue by Rush Limbaugh, and it’s well worth reading. I would suggest that you go read the whole thing along with Ross’ response, but I’m not a cruel man, so I’ll excerpt the part that I want to talk about here.
What Limbaugh is saying here is just patently absurd. Part of what more realistic conservatives were saying when they argued that McCain – and only McCain – even had a chance of catching up to Obama was that McCain would have to appeal to independents and conservative Democrats. This is true. McCain was the only person who was running for the Republican nomination that even had a shot. And he proceeded to take that shot and throw it into the deepest, darkest well he could. For this, Limbaugh sees the end of moderation.
Limbaugh asks, “How the hell is it that moderate Republicans are fleeing their own party and we are not attracting other moderates and independents?” Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that McCain never made any effort to attract those people? McCain was always presented with an impossible task: He is a deeply unpopular figure among the Republican base, not a group known for the embrace of unpopular heterodoxies. He had to make sure that those people were with him first and foremost. Without the hardcore 28%, there’s no there there. McCain always had to run hard right to appeal to those people. The whole joke of Palin was that she was supposed to be the bone that would satiate them so he could get down to the important business of convincing moderates and independents not to notice the slavering horde behind the podium.
These were always going to be impossible balls to keep juggling. The two groups are just two far apart for a politician running in an inherently hostile environment, from the incumbent party of one of the most unpopular presidents ever. McCain – and Republicans in general – were always given an almost impossible task. What no one could have predicted was just how truly, epically McCain would fail at it. McCain 2008 is going to go down in history as being one of the most ineptly run major party campaigns ever. People will study it for years to come, looking for clues in what not to do.
Now, I wish to ask all of you influential pseudointellectual conservative media types who have also abandoned McCain and want to go vote for Obama (and you know who you are without my having to mention your name) what happened to your precious theory? What the hell happened to your theory that only John McCain could enlarge this party, that we had to get moderates and independents? How the hell is it that moderate Republicans are fleeing their own party and we are not attracting other moderates and independents?Ross says the whole speech – an attempt to shift blame for McCain’s coming defeat away from mouth breathing troglodytes like Limbaugh and onto those remaining moderate conservatives who have decided to vote for Obama. The problem with this quote in particular (along with the piece as a whole) is that it doesn’t make any sense. Ross argues that the whole thing makes a kind of internal sense if you squint hard and don’t think about it too much, but I’m not sure about that.
What Limbaugh is saying here is just patently absurd. Part of what more realistic conservatives were saying when they argued that McCain – and only McCain – even had a chance of catching up to Obama was that McCain would have to appeal to independents and conservative Democrats. This is true. McCain was the only person who was running for the Republican nomination that even had a shot. And he proceeded to take that shot and throw it into the deepest, darkest well he could. For this, Limbaugh sees the end of moderation.
Limbaugh asks, “How the hell is it that moderate Republicans are fleeing their own party and we are not attracting other moderates and independents?” Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that McCain never made any effort to attract those people? McCain was always presented with an impossible task: He is a deeply unpopular figure among the Republican base, not a group known for the embrace of unpopular heterodoxies. He had to make sure that those people were with him first and foremost. Without the hardcore 28%, there’s no there there. McCain always had to run hard right to appeal to those people. The whole joke of Palin was that she was supposed to be the bone that would satiate them so he could get down to the important business of convincing moderates and independents not to notice the slavering horde behind the podium.
These were always going to be impossible balls to keep juggling. The two groups are just two far apart for a politician running in an inherently hostile environment, from the incumbent party of one of the most unpopular presidents ever. McCain – and Republicans in general – were always given an almost impossible task. What no one could have predicted was just how truly, epically McCain would fail at it. McCain 2008 is going to go down in history as being one of the most ineptly run major party campaigns ever. People will study it for years to come, looking for clues in what not to do.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Legacy
Jonathan Rauch writes in the National Journal Magazine about perverse potential outcomes of the voting decisions we all get to make in the near future (if we have not made them already).
His most interesting point, among several, is the idea that an Obama victory would likely save Bush's legacy, just as Eisenhower saved Truman, by emphasizing his good policies and smothering the bad ones.
I'm captivated by that one. On the surface, it seems to have real merit. I can't wait to toss that one out for wider consideration tomorrow morning around the coffeepot.
His most interesting point, among several, is the idea that an Obama victory would likely save Bush's legacy, just as Eisenhower saved Truman, by emphasizing his good policies and smothering the bad ones.
I'm captivated by that one. On the surface, it seems to have real merit. I can't wait to toss that one out for wider consideration tomorrow morning around the coffeepot.
Friday, October 24, 2008
More Bad
European and Asian stocks tanked today. See the numbers here.
Here's the thing with this- the commercial paper markets, heretofore the epicenter of this problem, have actually started to move again. Investors are now staying away for quite different reasons...fear of recession?
In any event, the Dow opens in about an hour. Expect another tremendously bad day.
Here's the thing with this- the commercial paper markets, heretofore the epicenter of this problem, have actually started to move again. Investors are now staying away for quite different reasons...fear of recession?
In any event, the Dow opens in about an hour. Expect another tremendously bad day.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
NYT Endorses Obama
So this is another reminder of why the NYT is the best newspaper in the United States.
The editorial endorsing Barack Obama for president does manage to point out his good qualities, but does a far more impressive job of burying the Bush administration in the sort of systematic, overarching way that drives home the depths, still unknown, of their corruption of the ideals of American government.
It's definitely worth reading. It's probably worth printing off and hanging on an office door.
The editorial endorsing Barack Obama for president does manage to point out his good qualities, but does a far more impressive job of burying the Bush administration in the sort of systematic, overarching way that drives home the depths, still unknown, of their corruption of the ideals of American government.
It's definitely worth reading. It's probably worth printing off and hanging on an office door.
Greenspan Hits Iceburg, All Feared Lost
In congressional testimony today, former Chair of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan lit the fuse on his own legacy, and blew out the foundations. See the story in The Newspaper of Record.
Greenspan stood athwart the American financial landscape like a Titan for the better part of two decades. Markets trembled at the whims of his occasional, generally convoluted, public statements. In one sense, seeing him admit that the philosophy of deregulation that had informed his professional thinking for most of his adult life has proven deeply flawed feels tragic, the emperor revealed sans clothes.
On the other, it's impressive that he owned the failure. Many in the clips of the congressional hearings I have heard seemed eager to pile on, driving to skewer both the man and the ideology as completely as possible. That hardly seemed necessary- Greenspan was more than ready to admit that in his own eyes he had erred, and to place blame on his own policy decisions. That says a great number of positive things about Greenspan's character, even if his economic model will probably not be guiding many economies in the future.
Greenspan stood athwart the American financial landscape like a Titan for the better part of two decades. Markets trembled at the whims of his occasional, generally convoluted, public statements. In one sense, seeing him admit that the philosophy of deregulation that had informed his professional thinking for most of his adult life has proven deeply flawed feels tragic, the emperor revealed sans clothes.
On the other, it's impressive that he owned the failure. Many in the clips of the congressional hearings I have heard seemed eager to pile on, driving to skewer both the man and the ideology as completely as possible. That hardly seemed necessary- Greenspan was more than ready to admit that in his own eyes he had erred, and to place blame on his own policy decisions. That says a great number of positive things about Greenspan's character, even if his economic model will probably not be guiding many economies in the future.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Landslide?
Pollster John Zogby: “Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”
This is from Zogby- about as pessimistic as it gets. See all the pretty numbers here.
This is from Zogby- about as pessimistic as it gets. See all the pretty numbers here.
Mistakes were Made...
I was suggesting just the other day that Colin Powell was the campaign's last "big" endorsement.
Oops!
Turns out there was at least one more lurking out there. In the sort of political theater that no one with a sense of decency could script, Al Qaeda has entered the fray on one of their regular sites. The post calls for three things: 1. a terrorist attack on the US before election day, 2. anything that continues the financial crisis, and, 3. the election of John McCain, whose foreign (read: war) policies will mirror W.'s and are therefore good for Al Qaeda recruitment and contribute to the squandering of American resources.
It's remarkable how informed one can remain in the mountains of central Asia.
This is just the latest in a surprising string of things going wrong for McCain, who seems to be losing the ability to read his own teleprompters. Palin has become a bigger drag on his ticket than the President. Plus the scandals already addressed by AARON: the 150k wardrobe, Obama's incredible financial advantage, and the increasing contraction of the McCain campaign to traditionally red states. It looks like McCain is increasingly running not to lose by an embarrassing margin.
**UPDATE**
McCain's response today, including pointing out that Hamas has made favorable comments about Obama, and proceeding to suggest that Al Qaeda statements made in support of Obama are part of an elaborate game of reverse psychology. The whole position is strained, to say the least. Read the story here.
Oops!
Turns out there was at least one more lurking out there. In the sort of political theater that no one with a sense of decency could script, Al Qaeda has entered the fray on one of their regular sites. The post calls for three things: 1. a terrorist attack on the US before election day, 2. anything that continues the financial crisis, and, 3. the election of John McCain, whose foreign (read: war) policies will mirror W.'s and are therefore good for Al Qaeda recruitment and contribute to the squandering of American resources.
It's remarkable how informed one can remain in the mountains of central Asia.
This is just the latest in a surprising string of things going wrong for McCain, who seems to be losing the ability to read his own teleprompters. Palin has become a bigger drag on his ticket than the President. Plus the scandals already addressed by AARON: the 150k wardrobe, Obama's incredible financial advantage, and the increasing contraction of the McCain campaign to traditionally red states. It looks like McCain is increasingly running not to lose by an embarrassing margin.
**UPDATE**
McCain's response today, including pointing out that Hamas has made favorable comments about Obama, and proceeding to suggest that Al Qaeda statements made in support of Obama are part of an elaborate game of reverse psychology. The whole position is strained, to say the least. Read the story here.
The Empress' New Clothes
The news hit last night that the RNC has spent $150 thousand dollars (or $149,446.96, too be specific) on Sarah Palin’s hair, makeup and wardrobe during the campaign so far. That’s a pretty amazing amount of money. Palin’s been on the campaign trail for fifty-two days now. That’s $2,873.98 a day.
For the most part, I find these little gotcha games annoying and a distraction. It doesn’t matter to me one whit that McCain wears $500 shoes or that John Edwards has a $400 haircut. If I had the kind of money that those guys have, I probably wouldn’t spend it on stuff like that, but I certainly wouldn’t want the media poking around my stereo. This, however, is a whole new level of absurdity. Is it even possible to wear $3000 worth of brand new clothes a day? Does she burn it all at the end of the day? Is she incapable of wearing the same dress twice?
The economy is in bad shape right now, and the government is resorting to some pretty extreme measures to try and prevent the crisis from turning into a catastrophe. McCain is rightly viewed as being all over the place in regards to the economy. It doesn’t help McCain’s position that the economy is normally a Democratic stronghold. But after the houses flap from earlier this year, this is exactly the kind of absurd, out-of-touch publicity that the Republicans needed to avoid. And with them withdrawing in Michigan, Colorado and North Carolina, wasn’t there anything more useful they could have spent this money one – I dunno, GOTV operations or television ads? Is giving Rich Lowry a boner really worth a hundred and fifty thousand dollars?
But on the bright side, with all of McCain’s houses, they’ll probably have enough closets to hang all those clothes.
For the most part, I find these little gotcha games annoying and a distraction. It doesn’t matter to me one whit that McCain wears $500 shoes or that John Edwards has a $400 haircut. If I had the kind of money that those guys have, I probably wouldn’t spend it on stuff like that, but I certainly wouldn’t want the media poking around my stereo. This, however, is a whole new level of absurdity. Is it even possible to wear $3000 worth of brand new clothes a day? Does she burn it all at the end of the day? Is she incapable of wearing the same dress twice?
The economy is in bad shape right now, and the government is resorting to some pretty extreme measures to try and prevent the crisis from turning into a catastrophe. McCain is rightly viewed as being all over the place in regards to the economy. It doesn’t help McCain’s position that the economy is normally a Democratic stronghold. But after the houses flap from earlier this year, this is exactly the kind of absurd, out-of-touch publicity that the Republicans needed to avoid. And with them withdrawing in Michigan, Colorado and North Carolina, wasn’t there anything more useful they could have spent this money one – I dunno, GOTV operations or television ads? Is giving Rich Lowry a boner really worth a hundred and fifty thousand dollars?
But on the bright side, with all of McCain’s houses, they’ll probably have enough closets to hang all those clothes.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Sticks and Stones
Joe Klein has been banned from the McCain and Palin planes. This is, of course, of a piece with the Republican attitude towards the press: if they’re not with us, they’re against us. This is a meme that has been floating around in Republican circles for a long time. It reached its fullest flower with the pre-surge Iraq War. Republicans and conservatives in general seem to be uniquely able to convince themselves that the world is not as everyone says it is, unless there’s an R after their name.
Progressives are not immune to this problem, as well. What they do, however, is a bit more mature. Progressives believe (sometimes wrongly, often rightly) that commercial news media often prize the horserace and contrast above actually in depth reportage. I think there are a lot of reasons for this, some of them more reasonable than others. But what differentiates progressives from conservatives is a willingness to accept an external reality outside of the media and the idelogical echo chamber (blogs on the left and talk radio on the right). This is one reason why so many progressives were willing to look at evidence that contradicted the government line when Republicans and establishment Democrats were not. Republicans were disinclined to listen to Hans Blix and other European counterarguments for ideological reasons, and congressional Democrats were all-too-willing to stick with the government line for fear of seeming “weak.”
What I find so exceptional about the McCain campaign’s relationship with the press is how petty it seems. McCain seems to regard negative coverage as a personal slight. In all fairness, if I were on the receiving end of it, I probably would, too. The problem is, I’m not running for president. To react to perceived slights in the childish way he has reveals a shocking lack of maturity and character on the part of McCain’s campaign and McCain himself. This campaign has revealed a lot about McCain as a person, and it’s confirmed a lot of them mythology he’s built up about himself. He really is the flyboy, the jock and the frat brother. And, as is so often the case, he can dish it out, but he can’t take it.
Progressives are not immune to this problem, as well. What they do, however, is a bit more mature. Progressives believe (sometimes wrongly, often rightly) that commercial news media often prize the horserace and contrast above actually in depth reportage. I think there are a lot of reasons for this, some of them more reasonable than others. But what differentiates progressives from conservatives is a willingness to accept an external reality outside of the media and the idelogical echo chamber (blogs on the left and talk radio on the right). This is one reason why so many progressives were willing to look at evidence that contradicted the government line when Republicans and establishment Democrats were not. Republicans were disinclined to listen to Hans Blix and other European counterarguments for ideological reasons, and congressional Democrats were all-too-willing to stick with the government line for fear of seeming “weak.”
What I find so exceptional about the McCain campaign’s relationship with the press is how petty it seems. McCain seems to regard negative coverage as a personal slight. In all fairness, if I were on the receiving end of it, I probably would, too. The problem is, I’m not running for president. To react to perceived slights in the childish way he has reveals a shocking lack of maturity and character on the part of McCain’s campaign and McCain himself. This campaign has revealed a lot about McCain as a person, and it’s confirmed a lot of them mythology he’s built up about himself. He really is the flyboy, the jock and the frat brother. And, as is so often the case, he can dish it out, but he can’t take it.
Courting the Goldfish Vote
This speaks for itself.
Dead goldfish offered the vote in Illinois
Await the Republican firestorm, implying that most of us are somehow voting fraudulently.
Dead goldfish offered the vote in Illinois
Await the Republican firestorm, implying that most of us are somehow voting fraudulently.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Quick Hits
I’m sick and don’t feel much like writing, but here are some interesting articles for your perusal:
Ted Stevens is on trial and it sounds like he’s just as delightful a witness as he is a senator.
This article in the New York Times lays out exactly why our current foreign policy of force projection and democracy promotion by force is so badly misguided. Even in a country that was badly in need of regime change, like Afghanistan, having a dozen children killed by an occupying army, you simply can’t win. Get this in order or get out now. And, of course, almost as a bonus for anyone looking, this continues to make Palin look like a fool.
PW beat me to it, but Colin Powell (along with just about every newspaper in America) endorsement of Barack Obama seems significant. It’s surprising to me the degree to which Obama is the adult choice in this election. There really isn’t a doubt.
And of course, Obama raises one hundred and fifty million dollars in September alone. That’s just unbelievable. The average donation size was $86. This is an unusual election cycle in so many ways.
Ted Stevens is on trial and it sounds like he’s just as delightful a witness as he is a senator.
This article in the New York Times lays out exactly why our current foreign policy of force projection and democracy promotion by force is so badly misguided. Even in a country that was badly in need of regime change, like Afghanistan, having a dozen children killed by an occupying army, you simply can’t win. Get this in order or get out now. And, of course, almost as a bonus for anyone looking, this continues to make Palin look like a fool.
PW beat me to it, but Colin Powell (along with just about every newspaper in America) endorsement of Barack Obama seems significant. It’s surprising to me the degree to which Obama is the adult choice in this election. There really isn’t a doubt.
And of course, Obama raises one hundred and fifty million dollars in September alone. That’s just unbelievable. The average donation size was $86. This is an unusual election cycle in so many ways.
The Last Big Endorsement?
The story of the day, assuming that the rest of the evening will be relatively quiet, is Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama. See video and print in the NYT.
On the one hand, Powell retains a certain aura unique to him as a sort of post-partisan keeper of the national interest, not only from the length and breadth of his service to the nation, but to his ability to serve very different administrations in quite effective ways.
Powell's time with W. has done much to tarnish that reputation- few things undermine one's claim to expertise more severely than Powell's UN appearance.
Which brings us to this morning. Nothing about the material we have so far seen seems to suggest that Powell was anything other than calculating in turning on his party and personal friend, John McCain. At that level, he provides an eloquent example of what putting his country first actually looks like. More, however, is the extent to which this feels like Powell speaking as much to his own legacy as to any other audience. In fact, who other than future historians (or current ones) could he be talking to? Are there really still undecideds in the Washington defense community, and if so, will this decide them? I hardly think JTP will be particularly swayed by the endorsement of someone so obscure as a former secretary of state. Despite the eye-rolling of certain American historians whenever I broach this theory, I remain convinced that had some different choices been made, Powell could have mopped the floor with the entire Republican field back in 2000, crossing many of the lines Obama is crossing in this one, and putting American policy on a very different track today. Clearly, Powell is unimpressed by the achievements of his party over the last decade. Today is something of a nod toward that alternative past, and a hopfull vision for a very different future.
**update**
Of course, there are other interpretation. Mr. Limbaugh in this thoughtful piece suggests secretary Powell is a racist. Way to go, Rush.
On the one hand, Powell retains a certain aura unique to him as a sort of post-partisan keeper of the national interest, not only from the length and breadth of his service to the nation, but to his ability to serve very different administrations in quite effective ways.
Powell's time with W. has done much to tarnish that reputation- few things undermine one's claim to expertise more severely than Powell's UN appearance.
Which brings us to this morning. Nothing about the material we have so far seen seems to suggest that Powell was anything other than calculating in turning on his party and personal friend, John McCain. At that level, he provides an eloquent example of what putting his country first actually looks like. More, however, is the extent to which this feels like Powell speaking as much to his own legacy as to any other audience. In fact, who other than future historians (or current ones) could he be talking to? Are there really still undecideds in the Washington defense community, and if so, will this decide them? I hardly think JTP will be particularly swayed by the endorsement of someone so obscure as a former secretary of state. Despite the eye-rolling of certain American historians whenever I broach this theory, I remain convinced that had some different choices been made, Powell could have mopped the floor with the entire Republican field back in 2000, crossing many of the lines Obama is crossing in this one, and putting American policy on a very different track today. Clearly, Powell is unimpressed by the achievements of his party over the last decade. Today is something of a nod toward that alternative past, and a hopfull vision for a very different future.
**update**
Of course, there are other interpretation. Mr. Limbaugh in this thoughtful piece suggests secretary Powell is a racist. Way to go, Rush.
Missing the Point
So smilin' Sarah Palin finally confronted her nemesis, in the most fleeting possible way, on SNL last night. Most of the coverage addressing her appearance has dwelt on the idea that Palin is somehow demonstrating what a good sport she can be, but I come away from the video above thinking rather that she personally contributed to a joke she still isn't quite all the way IN on.
Witty repartee with Alec Baldwin? Governor, you're running for vice president- besting an actor can only be a hollow victory. A situation made worse, then, by the fact that you patently failed to best him: He accuses you of being a "horrible person," you respond that you've always preferred his brother's acting?
And the dancing to the moose-rap thing? Yes, you looked like the cool mom up there, but you looked like that already. What the US wants to see from you is some indication of gravitas behind the winsome public facade.
I guess I would have liked to see Palin confront Fey, or at least field a couple of humorous questions from the fake news conference. On the whole, SNL proved to be yet another Palin tour de faiblesse.
Witty repartee with Alec Baldwin? Governor, you're running for vice president- besting an actor can only be a hollow victory. A situation made worse, then, by the fact that you patently failed to best him: He accuses you of being a "horrible person," you respond that you've always preferred his brother's acting?
And the dancing to the moose-rap thing? Yes, you looked like the cool mom up there, but you looked like that already. What the US wants to see from you is some indication of gravitas behind the winsome public facade.
I guess I would have liked to see Palin confront Fey, or at least field a couple of humorous questions from the fake news conference. On the whole, SNL proved to be yet another Palin tour de faiblesse.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
The Ringing Silence
So, any regular reader of this blog will by now have discerned that I live in one of this year's battleground states, and as such have been -deluged- for the last month with political media. I was getting three or four robocalls a day, plus a series of increasingly nasty mailers, often again three or four a day, pertaining to the state representative race for this district.
The thing is, I've already voted, in accordance with my state's arcane (and increasingly litigated) voting laws. My last call from the Obama camp was last Friday, when I explained to the nice man at the other end of the line why it was that in fact, I didn't require any of the Senator's resources to get me to a polling place in November. It was like flipping a switch. I haven't received a call from either party in over a week now.
If I could just figure out how to turn off the mailers...
The thing is, I've already voted, in accordance with my state's arcane (and increasingly litigated) voting laws. My last call from the Obama camp was last Friday, when I explained to the nice man at the other end of the line why it was that in fact, I didn't require any of the Senator's resources to get me to a polling place in November. It was like flipping a switch. I haven't received a call from either party in over a week now.
If I could just figure out how to turn off the mailers...
The Hunt for the Illusive Real American
Hilzoy over at the Washington Monthly drops some science on Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota. You may have seen the clip of her on Hardball from last night. It’s a pretty thorough fisking of the first term congresswoman, so if you were as disgusted with her comments as I was, you might want to go over and check it out. Can schadenfreude kill you? And if you haven’t seen the clip, it’s worth checking out just to see what lies underneath all those conservative rocks. It’s not pretty.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Voting Obstacle Course
The Supreme Court backed up the Ohio secretary of state today, stopping a challenge from Ohio’s Republican Party trying to get some 200,000 voter registrations looked at again. This is, of course, not the first time that we’ve had an instance of voting problems in Ohio. It seems like this is going to be a year where voter fraud is a major post-election story, one way or another. Personally, I’d like to associate myself with Matt Yglesias’ thoughts on voter registration. It’s absurd that it’s so difficult to register to vote in the United States. I can’t think of a single legitimate reason why voting is so difficult – although, of course, I can think of several illegitimate ones. The more people who vote, the more they tend to vote Democratic. That is an obvious problem for the Republican Party.
There are many, many things in the United States that defy logic and exist simply because they’ve been around for so long. Our voting system is due for a major overhaul. After two presidential election cycles in a row where voter fraud (or, in this one, somewhat moronically, voter registration fraud), we really ought to do something about it. If you’re eighteen, you should be registered to vote, period. If we can put a man on the moon, we can create a national election system that isn’t a shambling disgrace.
There are many, many things in the United States that defy logic and exist simply because they’ve been around for so long. Our voting system is due for a major overhaul. After two presidential election cycles in a row where voter fraud (or, in this one, somewhat moronically, voter registration fraud), we really ought to do something about it. If you’re eighteen, you should be registered to vote, period. If we can put a man on the moon, we can create a national election system that isn’t a shambling disgrace.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Finding a Nut
McCain went on and on at the debate about ACORN, and I think this Hendrick Hertzberg piece in the New Yorker is worth reading. The whole ACORN kerfuffle is absurd on its face, but it’s nice to have a one-stop-shop place to find out exactly why. Hertzberg gives us that.
Wheroin
The BBC has a fascinating report on the disappearance of huge quantities of heroin in the wilds of Afghanistan. One of the aspects of the “war on terror” that has often gone unremarked upon is the degree to which the “success” of rebuilding Afghanistan depends upon growing huge quantities of poppies for the production of heroin. The drugs that they’re making are being funneled into Western Europe and the United States. What’s really interesting about the situation is that Afghanistan is currently producing almost three times as much opium as needed to satisfy the world’s known demand for heroin – but the streets of the Western world aren’t being flooded with unheard of amounts of heroin. Why?
The article quotes speculation that the heroin is being stockpiled inside Afghanistan for distribution into new markets – Russia, Iran and China – that are unwilling to admit to the size of their heroin problem. It underscores the degree to which terrorism is just one subset of a much larger and more interdependent series of world crime problems. You can’t deal with terrorism and drugs as separate issues – this whole underground world is linked together.
The article quotes speculation that the heroin is being stockpiled inside Afghanistan for distribution into new markets – Russia, Iran and China – that are unwilling to admit to the size of their heroin problem. It underscores the degree to which terrorism is just one subset of a much larger and more interdependent series of world crime problems. You can’t deal with terrorism and drugs as separate issues – this whole underground world is linked together.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The Joe Plumber Show
There is no doubt this was John McCain's best debate.
He looked and sounded a little like he had somehow been sedated, and his incessant grinning was still somewhat off-putting. But the sedation worked for him, combined with a controlled aggression we have not seen before. He actually sounded fairly reasonable much of the time, although I thought his handling of the abortion questions could have been much more empathetic.
Obama by contrast carried himself well, but it seemed like he was always yielding the last word to his opponent. Watching him try to address Sarah Palin was agonizing- you could tell he desperately wanted to say a bunch of very impolitic things. Although Obama does get extra points for not taking notes- that's impressive. I will also say, I never want to play cards with this guy.
I don't know what the insta-polls will say, but I give this exchange to McCain, if for no other reason than I was starting to doubt he was still capable of sustaining nuanced argument.
The larger question- does it matter? If McCain could somehow transform the tenor of his performance tonight into, I dunno, a campaign, he might really have something. It seems rather late for that pivot, however. I doubt Palin could deliver this kind of message. And I don't think McCain managed to land any blows capable of producing the historic soundbite that might turn the campaign. There just isn't much new ground to cover at this point- I'll be interested to see how many people even watched this one, or just plan to tune in to find out the "winner" in the morning.
Even if McCain does come off as the consensus victor tonight, it will remain one bright spot in the sea of difficulty on which he is adrift. I've no doubt McCain impressed the people who were already voting for him. I guess we all wait to see if he impressed anyone else.
He looked and sounded a little like he had somehow been sedated, and his incessant grinning was still somewhat off-putting. But the sedation worked for him, combined with a controlled aggression we have not seen before. He actually sounded fairly reasonable much of the time, although I thought his handling of the abortion questions could have been much more empathetic.
Obama by contrast carried himself well, but it seemed like he was always yielding the last word to his opponent. Watching him try to address Sarah Palin was agonizing- you could tell he desperately wanted to say a bunch of very impolitic things. Although Obama does get extra points for not taking notes- that's impressive. I will also say, I never want to play cards with this guy.
I don't know what the insta-polls will say, but I give this exchange to McCain, if for no other reason than I was starting to doubt he was still capable of sustaining nuanced argument.
The larger question- does it matter? If McCain could somehow transform the tenor of his performance tonight into, I dunno, a campaign, he might really have something. It seems rather late for that pivot, however. I doubt Palin could deliver this kind of message. And I don't think McCain managed to land any blows capable of producing the historic soundbite that might turn the campaign. There just isn't much new ground to cover at this point- I'll be interested to see how many people even watched this one, or just plan to tune in to find out the "winner" in the morning.
Even if McCain does come off as the consensus victor tonight, it will remain one bright spot in the sea of difficulty on which he is adrift. I've no doubt McCain impressed the people who were already voting for him. I guess we all wait to see if he impressed anyone else.
Knowing When to Give Up
Via John Cole, this discussion between Byron York and Matt Taibbi is entirely full of win. He takes York apart. Apparently, York either doesn’t understand or is unwilling to admit that credit default swaps are at the heart of the financial crisis. I guess he should have listened to last week’s This American Life. I did, and it really helped clear things up for me.
In short: a credit default swap is a kind of insurance program that traders buy. You can bet against a company defaulting. So, let’s say I own stock in a company, and I want to protect myself from loosing all of my money if it goes bust. So, I buy a CDS and if that should happen, the people who insured me give me that money. The thing is: Phil Gramm deregulated the CDS market in 2000. Anyone could buy them, even for stocks that they didn’t own. It would be kind of like me taking out a life insurance policy on my neighbor, hoping that he dies. The CDS market was about $62 trillion dollars. That’s five times the New York Stock Exchange – and when AIG failed, all the guys who had money on AIG to fail wanted to collect – from people who didn’t have any money to give them. Hence: collapse.
In short: a credit default swap is a kind of insurance program that traders buy. You can bet against a company defaulting. So, let’s say I own stock in a company, and I want to protect myself from loosing all of my money if it goes bust. So, I buy a CDS and if that should happen, the people who insured me give me that money. The thing is: Phil Gramm deregulated the CDS market in 2000. Anyone could buy them, even for stocks that they didn’t own. It would be kind of like me taking out a life insurance policy on my neighbor, hoping that he dies. The CDS market was about $62 trillion dollars. That’s five times the New York Stock Exchange – and when AIG failed, all the guys who had money on AIG to fail wanted to collect – from people who didn’t have any money to give them. Hence: collapse.
More Signing Statements
President Bush – remember him? – is back at it again with those wacky signing statements. It has been a constant source of amazement to me that Bush has been able to get away with these things for going on eight years now. Is there any sort of legal mechanism for addressing this short of impeaching the president? It’s frankly unbelievable that someone can simply say about laws that the Congress has passed, “I don’t agree with this, and I don’t intend to follow it.”
Signing statements, Guantanamo Bay, torture, the politization of the Justice Department, NASA, FEMA, the FCC and the EPA and practically every other part of the Executive Branch, Cheney’s wholly extralegal role in this administration – it just goes on and on. When you step back and look at the sheer enormity of Bush’s actions in his two terms of office, you have to take your hat off to the man. He’s been busy.
Four more months.
Signing statements, Guantanamo Bay, torture, the politization of the Justice Department, NASA, FEMA, the FCC and the EPA and practically every other part of the Executive Branch, Cheney’s wholly extralegal role in this administration – it just goes on and on. When you step back and look at the sheer enormity of Bush’s actions in his two terms of office, you have to take your hat off to the man. He’s been busy.
Four more months.
Annals of the Stupid
If you’re going to try and hijack an airplane, it probably helps to not be drunk.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Pre-Debate III
So we stand on the brink of the Third Debate. The final debate. Perhaps the McPalin campaign's last chance to turn away from their increasingly flailing campaign and pull together a coherent narrative to run through the next few weeks. I've already stated that I think the failure of the first bailout plan to immediately right the financial world effectively doomed the McCain campaign, and if he's going to make me fall on my keyboard, eat humble verbiage, etc. very early in the morning of 5 November, this could well be his last chance.
Don't take my word for it- conservative and liberal pundits alike pile on: Huffpo points out that the combination of negative ads and the prolonged economic crisis are driving Obama to double digit leads. Kathleen Parker suggests that Palin was the fatal flaw, and then admits on last night's Colbert Report that her White House contacts agree. Matthew Dowd, chief political strategist for Bush-Cheney '04, suggests that the selection of Palin has endangered the country. The New Republic offers this "pre-mortem" for McPalin. And of course, the now-classic William Kristol piece that led the charge, suggesting that McCain should stabilize his campaign...by firing his staff.
The remarkable thing about the above sampling of an increasingly crowded field is that so many of the people in it are archly conservative, or even work for the Republican party. As the Right turns on its own, Obama's job just gets easier. All he has to do is keep marking time. As I said starting out, tomorrow night might well be the last chance for McCain to destabilize the trends running ever more solidly against him. But lets be clear about that- he needs to win the debate, and to do that at this point would require the sort of performance that would immediately enter the annals of American politics a la Kennedy-Nixon. It's not impossible. But it is analogous to recovering an onside kick, then forcing a fumble, and running en effective enough offense to recover from a 10 point deficit in the fourth quarter. With each passing day reinforcing positive impressions of and voter support for Obama, the odds just keeps getting longer.
And of course, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the person most deeply tarnished by current conditions is the sitting president. Gideon Rachman of the FT pens this piece, evaluating the performances of various European leaders which comparison to President Bush. Who says the world doesn't benefit from the trans-Atlantic alliance?
Don't take my word for it- conservative and liberal pundits alike pile on: Huffpo points out that the combination of negative ads and the prolonged economic crisis are driving Obama to double digit leads. Kathleen Parker suggests that Palin was the fatal flaw, and then admits on last night's Colbert Report that her White House contacts agree. Matthew Dowd, chief political strategist for Bush-Cheney '04, suggests that the selection of Palin has endangered the country. The New Republic offers this "pre-mortem" for McPalin. And of course, the now-classic William Kristol piece that led the charge, suggesting that McCain should stabilize his campaign...by firing his staff.
The remarkable thing about the above sampling of an increasingly crowded field is that so many of the people in it are archly conservative, or even work for the Republican party. As the Right turns on its own, Obama's job just gets easier. All he has to do is keep marking time. As I said starting out, tomorrow night might well be the last chance for McCain to destabilize the trends running ever more solidly against him. But lets be clear about that- he needs to win the debate, and to do that at this point would require the sort of performance that would immediately enter the annals of American politics a la Kennedy-Nixon. It's not impossible. But it is analogous to recovering an onside kick, then forcing a fumble, and running en effective enough offense to recover from a 10 point deficit in the fourth quarter. With each passing day reinforcing positive impressions of and voter support for Obama, the odds just keeps getting longer.
And of course, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that the person most deeply tarnished by current conditions is the sitting president. Gideon Rachman of the FT pens this piece, evaluating the performances of various European leaders which comparison to President Bush. Who says the world doesn't benefit from the trans-Atlantic alliance?
End of the Beginning?
So stocks seem to have stabilized, and as the government moves to buy parts of all the largest banks in the US (whether they need it or not, to avoid giving investors a clear idea of who is in how much trouble), we have also taken to ordering those banks to lend out the money rather than hoarding it to improve their asset ratios. It's unclear where the government acquired the authority to give that order, but when Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman suggests that Gordon Brown may have saved the world with his financial planning (and Gordo could certainly benefit from something going right with his administration), things might be stabilizing. As is the usual refrain at this point, it remains unclear how credit markets will respond. Although, as this RCP story points out, the administration have done it at the cost of deeply alienating some fiscal conservatives. I don't really believe that George Bush was ever an adherent to Ayn Rand's political theories, or that he has traded in what he does believe for Marxism. I do believe that he's moved a very long way from the economic model informing his policy eight years ago.
In addition, I would refer readers to this WaPo article by Robert Skidelsky. My first project in graduate school was an evaluation of Skidelsky's biographies of John Maynard Keynes, and he has forgotten more about economic history than I will ever know. To see Dr. Skidelsky in the world of journalism is a rare treat.
In addition, I would refer readers to this WaPo article by Robert Skidelsky. My first project in graduate school was an evaluation of Skidelsky's biographies of John Maynard Keynes, and he has forgotten more about economic history than I will ever know. To see Dr. Skidelsky in the world of journalism is a rare treat.
Wow
According to Politico, RNC money originally destined for brand new Republican nominees running for seats is instead being directed at trying to salvage the election chances of incumbents. That’s pretty phenomenal. These are not the kind of decisions you want to be forced to make three weeks before an election.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Electoral College Follies
Via Andrew Sullivan, James Pontuso argues for the Electoral College.
But where does that leave us? Let’s assume that Pontuso’s assertion that doing away with it would loosen the two party system’s grip on the American political scene, creating a new bounty of political parties, representing all kinds of different interests. Is this a bad thing? The two major parties went through an enormous realignment beginning with the civil rights movement. Racist, segregationist sections of the Democratic coalition fled, moving into the Republican camp, while socially liberal fiscal conservatives began to flee the Republican Party with the rise of the Christianist wing of the party. Right now, the two major parties are a lot more ideologically coherent than they ever have been before. The Republican Party especially is already well on its way to becoming a religious, regionalist party. This sorting has led to one of the most bemoaned aspects of modern American politics: excessive partisanship. In the fifties and sixties, it was much more likely that an issue of social and cultural policy would find adherents (and enemies) on both sides of the aisle. This is no longer the case. The current Republican Party is overwhelmingly socially conservative, and the current Democratic Party is (far less) overwhelmingly liberal – although I would say that the Democrats are to the right of what a truly liberal stance would look like.
Pontuso’s idea of ten or twelve parties competing for a Presidential nomination is foolish for another reason, as well. As he points out, the presidency is the only truly national office that all Americans are able to vote for. That kind of campaigning requires money. Barack Obama has demonstrated that that money doesn’t have to come from the traditional sources, but it does have to come from somewhere. The idea that Denis Kucinich could jump from the Democrats to another party and suddenly become a viable candidate is just ridiculous.
Personally, I find the idea of breaking the back of the two party system tremendously appealing. It would allow smaller issues to rise to much higher prominence, as a clutch of small, issue driven parties would present marginal issues that would slowly be absorbed by two or three larger parties. But getting rid of the Electoral College won’t do that. What would affect that change would be to increase the number of Representatives to the House. Currently there are only 435 voting members, with an average district size of almost 700,000 people. There is simply no reason, other than a misguided notion of tradition, that we should keep that number that low. If we increased the number of representatives to, say, 1500 Representatives, it would give us congressional districts of about 200,000 people. That’s certainly still a large number of people, but it’s far more likely that an outsider candidate, working on a modest budget, could succeed in winning that seat. If you were dedicated, you could actually meet and talk to a substantial portion of the population of a district that size.
Without the winner-take-all provision of the Electoral College, America would have a multiple-party system, since there would be less reason to support one of the two major party’s candidates. Since the President is the only nationally elected official, it is the prize of the winning the presidency that keeps the two parties from splitting first into regional parties and then into ideological or interest-based parties. It is likely that, without a two-party system at the presidential level, the country would break down to its constituent interest groups. There would be a women’s party, an environmental party, a business party, a men’s party, a Southern party, and on and on. The United States would become ungovernable. The American political landscape would begin to resemble Italy’s where there have been 52 governments – or executives – since World War II.Part of this is just sheer nonsense: there’s no way the US could have gone through 52 governments since World War II: we are not a parliamentary democracy. We can’t call for new elections when we loose confidence in our leaders. Whether that’s good or bad, I’m not entirely sure, but it certainly is true. So the idea that getting rid of the Electoral College would create an inherently unstable government is pure hogwash.
But where does that leave us? Let’s assume that Pontuso’s assertion that doing away with it would loosen the two party system’s grip on the American political scene, creating a new bounty of political parties, representing all kinds of different interests. Is this a bad thing? The two major parties went through an enormous realignment beginning with the civil rights movement. Racist, segregationist sections of the Democratic coalition fled, moving into the Republican camp, while socially liberal fiscal conservatives began to flee the Republican Party with the rise of the Christianist wing of the party. Right now, the two major parties are a lot more ideologically coherent than they ever have been before. The Republican Party especially is already well on its way to becoming a religious, regionalist party. This sorting has led to one of the most bemoaned aspects of modern American politics: excessive partisanship. In the fifties and sixties, it was much more likely that an issue of social and cultural policy would find adherents (and enemies) on both sides of the aisle. This is no longer the case. The current Republican Party is overwhelmingly socially conservative, and the current Democratic Party is (far less) overwhelmingly liberal – although I would say that the Democrats are to the right of what a truly liberal stance would look like.
Pontuso’s idea of ten or twelve parties competing for a Presidential nomination is foolish for another reason, as well. As he points out, the presidency is the only truly national office that all Americans are able to vote for. That kind of campaigning requires money. Barack Obama has demonstrated that that money doesn’t have to come from the traditional sources, but it does have to come from somewhere. The idea that Denis Kucinich could jump from the Democrats to another party and suddenly become a viable candidate is just ridiculous.
Personally, I find the idea of breaking the back of the two party system tremendously appealing. It would allow smaller issues to rise to much higher prominence, as a clutch of small, issue driven parties would present marginal issues that would slowly be absorbed by two or three larger parties. But getting rid of the Electoral College won’t do that. What would affect that change would be to increase the number of Representatives to the House. Currently there are only 435 voting members, with an average district size of almost 700,000 people. There is simply no reason, other than a misguided notion of tradition, that we should keep that number that low. If we increased the number of representatives to, say, 1500 Representatives, it would give us congressional districts of about 200,000 people. That’s certainly still a large number of people, but it’s far more likely that an outsider candidate, working on a modest budget, could succeed in winning that seat. If you were dedicated, you could actually meet and talk to a substantial portion of the population of a district that size.
Even Chain Emails Have Authors
The New York Times has a short profile of the man largely responsible for the anti-Obama emails that you may have had forwarded to you by uncles and cousins this year. His name is Andy Martin, and he sounds like a real piece of work.
In some ways, I feel like it’s unfair to lambaste conservatives for Martin. He’s clearly a man with a lot of psychiatric problems. But the fact of the matter is, when you pick up the rock, these are the kinds of people you find underneath it. I’m sure that Daily Kos and Democratic Underground have more than their fair share of paranoids, schizophrenics and general crazies.
But I’m going to do it anyways.
Martin and this kind of lunacy has a cache and a solid place in the rightwing message machine that simply isn’t comparable with anything going on in progressive politics. Martin himself may be a sadly sick man with too much money and time on his hands, but the people at Fox News and Sean Hannity know what they’re doing when they have him on. Martin is useful for them. They can bemoan and decry Martin later, once he’s not on the show. But they’ve succeeded in doing what they set out: they helped Martin and his ilk disseminate the lies and slander a bit further, they’ve scared another old woman from voting her interest. That’s how it works. If it wasn’t Martin, it’d be another crazy. He just happens to be the one the deadenders need to put enough distance between themselves and the lies they need to get elected.
In some ways, I feel like it’s unfair to lambaste conservatives for Martin. He’s clearly a man with a lot of psychiatric problems. But the fact of the matter is, when you pick up the rock, these are the kinds of people you find underneath it. I’m sure that Daily Kos and Democratic Underground have more than their fair share of paranoids, schizophrenics and general crazies.
But I’m going to do it anyways.
Martin and this kind of lunacy has a cache and a solid place in the rightwing message machine that simply isn’t comparable with anything going on in progressive politics. Martin himself may be a sadly sick man with too much money and time on his hands, but the people at Fox News and Sean Hannity know what they’re doing when they have him on. Martin is useful for them. They can bemoan and decry Martin later, once he’s not on the show. But they’ve succeeded in doing what they set out: they helped Martin and his ilk disseminate the lies and slander a bit further, they’ve scared another old woman from voting her interest. That’s how it works. If it wasn’t Martin, it’d be another crazy. He just happens to be the one the deadenders need to put enough distance between themselves and the lies they need to get elected.
Participatory Democracy
I received and mailed out my absentee ballot today. I’ve been worried about it arriving in time, but I think it’ll have enough time to get back to the US in time to be counted. As I’m registered to vote in Ohio, I think it’s important that I do send out my ballot – even if the numbers are looking a lot better than they were a month or two ago, every vote is going to count this year. Just like in the last two. At any rate: there’s at least one vote for Obama in Ohio. Now, it’s a waiting game.
McCain's Possible Campaign Pitstop
Here’s a theme I’ve been hearing from despairing Republicans, something they think that McCain should be laying out for voters, since his other attacks don’t seem to be gaining much traction. Bill Kristol today:
In another election cycle, that kind of advice might have gained some traction. I think the last month or so of McCain’s antics, starting with his selection of Palin as his running mate, has more than amply demonstrated McCain’s unfitness for the presidency in specific and for national office in general. It just goes to show you how far a great background story and a winning way with reporters can get you, even if you are temperamentally unfit to be in charge of nuclear weapons.
Nate Silver thinks that this might be Kristol laying the groundwork for McCain to radically shake up his campaign. Perhaps, but I honestly can’t imagine a worse campaign strategy. Ditching your entire campaign staff three weeks before the election? Maybe, if McCain is running for “most unstable candidate for high office.” If McCain and company spend a whole week trying to link Obama to terrorists and then to simply say, “Hey, look over there! A blimp!” and run away would be a pretty shocking turn of events.
And he can point out that there’s going to be a Democratic Congress. He can suggest that surely we’d prefer a president who would check that Congress where necessary and work with it where possible, instead of having an inexperienced Democratic president joined at the hip with an all-too-experienced Democratic Congress, leading us, unfettered and unchecked, back to 1970s-style liberalism.I actually do think this is a solid argument for people with a rightward tilt to their politics. Or, at least, it would be, if we hadn’t just lived through eight years of the Bush administration and six years of “conservative” governance in the Congress. Whatever conservatism means – and I’m content to leave it up to others to dish that out for themselves – we certainly haven’t seen any of that from the current crop of Republicans in Washington. Which, of course, includes one John McCain, Maverick. McCain lacks the judgment and temperament to be any sort of check on anyone, as his campaign this far has made perfectly clear. At some point or another, the public in this country is going to have to wrap their heads around just how far to the right the entire body politic has drifted since Goldwater. It’s been a long time since Reagan put on the “no vacancy” sign on the Great Society and even longer since the Roosevelt coalition held sway.
In another election cycle, that kind of advice might have gained some traction. I think the last month or so of McCain’s antics, starting with his selection of Palin as his running mate, has more than amply demonstrated McCain’s unfitness for the presidency in specific and for national office in general. It just goes to show you how far a great background story and a winning way with reporters can get you, even if you are temperamentally unfit to be in charge of nuclear weapons.
Nate Silver thinks that this might be Kristol laying the groundwork for McCain to radically shake up his campaign. Perhaps, but I honestly can’t imagine a worse campaign strategy. Ditching your entire campaign staff three weeks before the election? Maybe, if McCain is running for “most unstable candidate for high office.” If McCain and company spend a whole week trying to link Obama to terrorists and then to simply say, “Hey, look over there! A blimp!” and run away would be a pretty shocking turn of events.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Respite, of a sort
John McCain has finally started to push his campaign rallies back from the brink of becoming unruly mobs, and is getting booed for his trouble. The move on his part suggests that he still has some filters for appropriate behavior in place, which is a good call on his part. It should keep him from becoming completely irrelevant over the next three weeks.
Following one of the worst financial weeks in modern history, the markets are mercifully silent for the weekend. Following the surprisingly (or perhaps not so surprisingly) quiet announcement from the White House that the US would be adopting the British-style bailout plan of direct investment in banks, things may well be much quieter on Monday. Stories are beginning to appear suggesting that it might now be time for the rally as investors sweep in to buy up undervalued assets. Maybe. Even if they do, the real test remains the inter-business lending on the commercial paper markets. But then, you know that already if you've been keeping up with the This American Life broadcasts. So, how does it feel to live in a "partially socialized" nation?
Even the Axis of Evil seems to be passing from the political stage, with charter-member North Korea being removed from the state sponsors of terrorism list. Poor Dubya, face to face with the lesson of Ozymandius. It has to be hard for him to take- George never struck me as much of a philosopher.
After the run and gun of last week, today feels oddly like a respite. Think I'll go do something outside.
Following one of the worst financial weeks in modern history, the markets are mercifully silent for the weekend. Following the surprisingly (or perhaps not so surprisingly) quiet announcement from the White House that the US would be adopting the British-style bailout plan of direct investment in banks, things may well be much quieter on Monday. Stories are beginning to appear suggesting that it might now be time for the rally as investors sweep in to buy up undervalued assets. Maybe. Even if they do, the real test remains the inter-business lending on the commercial paper markets. But then, you know that already if you've been keeping up with the This American Life broadcasts. So, how does it feel to live in a "partially socialized" nation?
Even the Axis of Evil seems to be passing from the political stage, with charter-member North Korea being removed from the state sponsors of terrorism list. Poor Dubya, face to face with the lesson of Ozymandius. It has to be hard for him to take- George never struck me as much of a philosopher.
After the run and gun of last week, today feels oddly like a respite. Think I'll go do something outside.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Returning to Bretton Woods?
Apparently, world leaders are discussing closing the world's financial markets for the amount of time it would take them to negotiate a new Bretton Woods agreement.
Depending on who you ask, Bretton Woods was either the agreement that rebuilt the global economy after WWII (until Nixon broke it in 1973), or the agreement with which the US rigged the global economy to intrinsically favor its own interests (see: the protesters outside every G7 meeting). I suppose the two needn't be mutually exclusive. Any agreement of that scope, re-examining the fundamentals of how money and trade operate, would be enormously complex, and presumably take more than an afternoon to sort out. How long can we go without the world's financial systems?
In short, if there is any truth to this, it's a very big deal.
More to come.
Depending on who you ask, Bretton Woods was either the agreement that rebuilt the global economy after WWII (until Nixon broke it in 1973), or the agreement with which the US rigged the global economy to intrinsically favor its own interests (see: the protesters outside every G7 meeting). I suppose the two needn't be mutually exclusive. Any agreement of that scope, re-examining the fundamentals of how money and trade operate, would be enormously complex, and presumably take more than an afternoon to sort out. How long can we go without the world's financial systems?
In short, if there is any truth to this, it's a very big deal.
More to come.
The Texas Tea
So, can someone please explain why oil prices have just hit a one-year low? For one thing, I'm still paying over $3/gal for the stuff in its highly refined state, but more importantly, oil is one of those "commodities" that are supposed to be where investors flee when the paper markets tank.
Are they thinking we won't be able to afford cars soon?
Are they thinking we won't be able to afford cars soon?
A Report
I know there’s been a lot of loose talk around here about how I stole a car and murdered a drifter – the most deadly game. Well, good news: I’ve conducted an intense investigation into my possible misdeeds, and it turns out, I’ve cleared myself of all wrongdoing. So, hopefully we can all leave all this petty divisiveness behind us and move forward with the important business of running this blog.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
more
So the madcap fun continues today, with the dow plunging 689 points. The NYT brings you all the grim details. I know in earlier posts I have suggested that the stock market reports were more distraction than main course with regard to this crisis- that was before they lost over a thousand points in one week. Were this rate of depreciation to continue, there would cease to be a stock market around mid-December, although probably people will all have pulled their money anyway if this goes on for another, say, three weeks?
It is tempting to leave this story alone for a few days. Following it over the course of a day that spans every time zone on Earth and trying to keep up with the increasingly arcane financial implications is becoming at least a part-time job. But the very speed of the thing compels attention- after the crash in 1929, it took the markets three years to bottom out. We don't have anything like that kind of time in 2008. If some sort of turnaround isn't found, the implications are becoming increasingly frightening.
And to the rescue- the Socialism pronounced so dead by Baroness Thatcher et al. The Western World, increasingly prepared to abandon any vestige of a free market at all, seems prepared to treat their economies as a matter of national security, and to pay any price, buy any asset, and insure any transaction, to restore market liquidity. W. even floated the idea of nationalizing the United States' banking system, if the British solution seems to work out. You should probably read that last sentence again.
Whatever we do, we had better do it fast. The rather odd news yesterday regarding the Russian financial bailout of the Icelandic state was, it turns out, due to a lack of reserve capital that had compelled investors to pull their investments for safer currencies. If you think about it, that could happen to an awful lot of places. Smaller economies around the world that peg their own money to reserves of dollars or euros could begin to fail - Iceland could be the canary in the coal mine. But a quasi-European canary. Who do you think is going to pony up to bail out Bangladesh? Sudan? Angola? How long would this list be if I typed the whole thing? And if you think this is mess now, wait until we have a hundred developing nations with Zimbabwean inflation losing the ability to buy food.
I heard a really interesting piece on the way home today, by Andrei Codrescu, pointing out that for $700b, we could probably have bought out every mortgage in America and installed a robust system of regionally dispersed wind power turbines. I wonder what we would have done with the $3-400b left over after everyone owned their own home powered by clean energy? Improved schools perhaps? Does it sound like communism? Yeah, a little. But when you start to think of the opportunity cost of the last two weeks...I mean, this thing is still pretty scary, as there's no end in sight, but it's also becoming so terribly sad, watching us sacrifice the resources that might have addressed so many of the dire problems of our generation on the altar of market liquidity.
* Update *
OK, upon examination of some numbers, it turns out that $700b would not even approach purchasing all of America's mortgages. I hope my larger point about opportunity cost still comes across.
It is tempting to leave this story alone for a few days. Following it over the course of a day that spans every time zone on Earth and trying to keep up with the increasingly arcane financial implications is becoming at least a part-time job. But the very speed of the thing compels attention- after the crash in 1929, it took the markets three years to bottom out. We don't have anything like that kind of time in 2008. If some sort of turnaround isn't found, the implications are becoming increasingly frightening.
And to the rescue- the Socialism pronounced so dead by Baroness Thatcher et al. The Western World, increasingly prepared to abandon any vestige of a free market at all, seems prepared to treat their economies as a matter of national security, and to pay any price, buy any asset, and insure any transaction, to restore market liquidity. W. even floated the idea of nationalizing the United States' banking system, if the British solution seems to work out. You should probably read that last sentence again.
Whatever we do, we had better do it fast. The rather odd news yesterday regarding the Russian financial bailout of the Icelandic state was, it turns out, due to a lack of reserve capital that had compelled investors to pull their investments for safer currencies. If you think about it, that could happen to an awful lot of places. Smaller economies around the world that peg their own money to reserves of dollars or euros could begin to fail - Iceland could be the canary in the coal mine. But a quasi-European canary. Who do you think is going to pony up to bail out Bangladesh? Sudan? Angola? How long would this list be if I typed the whole thing? And if you think this is mess now, wait until we have a hundred developing nations with Zimbabwean inflation losing the ability to buy food.
I heard a really interesting piece on the way home today, by Andrei Codrescu, pointing out that for $700b, we could probably have bought out every mortgage in America and installed a robust system of regionally dispersed wind power turbines. I wonder what we would have done with the $3-400b left over after everyone owned their own home powered by clean energy? Improved schools perhaps? Does it sound like communism? Yeah, a little. But when you start to think of the opportunity cost of the last two weeks...I mean, this thing is still pretty scary, as there's no end in sight, but it's also becoming so terribly sad, watching us sacrifice the resources that might have addressed so many of the dire problems of our generation on the altar of market liquidity.
* Update *
OK, upon examination of some numbers, it turns out that $700b would not even approach purchasing all of America's mortgages. I hope my larger point about opportunity cost still comes across.
The Poetry Corner
In what seems likely to become an irregular feature of this blog, TPM posts here John Cleese's poetic monument to Sean Hannity. Poetry is not Cleese's best medium, but how can you not esteem poetry from a Python?
Worth a thousand words
The BBC has put together this page which seeks to explain the financial crisis in graphics. The list of banks that no longer exist is pretty stunning, but the pie graphs that compare the size of the bailout packages to the annual budgets of the states that are paying for them may take the cake.
The Crisis Explained, in Brief
PW mentioned last week an episode of NPR’s This American Life that dealt with the mortgage backed securities crisis from earlier in the year. That episode was so successful, both in terms of how clearly and succinctly it explained the crisis and the number of people who listened to it that they have done another episode, laying out the reasons for and possible ways ahead from the current credit crisis.
I listened to it this afternoon during a break at work. It’s an hour well worth your time. If you are at all confused by what’s been going on, why the bailout is important and other issues of the day (and I don’t know anyone who’s not), check it out. And really, you should be listening to This American Life anyways. It’s pretty awesome. They have streaming versions of all their episodes on their website, as well as a free weekly podcast available through iTunes.
I listened to it this afternoon during a break at work. It’s an hour well worth your time. If you are at all confused by what’s been going on, why the bailout is important and other issues of the day (and I don’t know anyone who’s not), check it out. And really, you should be listening to This American Life anyways. It’s pretty awesome. They have streaming versions of all their episodes on their website, as well as a free weekly podcast available through iTunes.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Opus, Farewell
It is with great sadness that I note this piece from NPR, indicating that Berkeley Breathed has penned his last Opus cartoon.
Opus' run for President with Bill the Cat on the Radical Meadow Party Ticket back in the late 80's was for all practical purposes my introduction to electoral politics. Many of those characters have been gone for a while, but Opus was still knocking around providing fantastic political satire.
If you have kids, I bet the books Breathed is moving to next will prove wildly inappropriate for them.
Good luck, Berk, and thanks for all the squid and herring jokes.
Opus' run for President with Bill the Cat on the Radical Meadow Party Ticket back in the late 80's was for all practical purposes my introduction to electoral politics. Many of those characters have been gone for a while, but Opus was still knocking around providing fantastic political satire.
If you have kids, I bet the books Breathed is moving to next will prove wildly inappropriate for them.
Good luck, Berk, and thanks for all the squid and herring jokes.
Unchecked
So for anyone who spent today under a rock or at work, it seems clear that the $700b we threw into our recent bailout package has been, to use John Maynard Keynes expression, "...chicken feed to the dragons..." The global crisis unfolding itself is now simply frightening in its scope and scale, and is promoting what I believe are unprecedented steps by the world's major governments to save us all from another depression.
A brief summary of things that have gone terribly wrong today would have to include: The British government nationalizing its banking system, purchasing shares of the eight largest banks in Britain and guaranteeing inter-bank loans in The Times. A globally coordinated reduction in interest rates between American, British, Chinese, and European banks designed to boost market performance in HuffPo. Another $38.7m loan to AIG in addition to the earlier $80m+ bailout in the NYT. Russia has stepped in to prevent the financial collapse of Iceland in Newsvine. Stocks across nearly every market in Asia continued to lose value on Drudge.
The Dow has just closed, down 189.
It is impressive to see the world's leaders actually working to coordinate their response to a problem that is now, clearly, an international one, and just as clearly really not under anyone's control.
There is little to no way to know what comes next, but here is the story in which Nancy Pelosi makes the first call for Bailout Plan II.
A brief summary of things that have gone terribly wrong today would have to include: The British government nationalizing its banking system, purchasing shares of the eight largest banks in Britain and guaranteeing inter-bank loans in The Times. A globally coordinated reduction in interest rates between American, British, Chinese, and European banks designed to boost market performance in HuffPo. Another $38.7m loan to AIG in addition to the earlier $80m+ bailout in the NYT. Russia has stepped in to prevent the financial collapse of Iceland in Newsvine. Stocks across nearly every market in Asia continued to lose value on Drudge.
The Dow has just closed, down 189.
It is impressive to see the world's leaders actually working to coordinate their response to a problem that is now, clearly, an international one, and just as clearly really not under anyone's control.
There is little to no way to know what comes next, but here is the story in which Nancy Pelosi makes the first call for Bailout Plan II.
Southeast Ohio Hits the Big Time
George Packer has an interesting piece discussing the white working class in Ohio. It was an interesting piece, made more so because it spends a great deal of time in the area surrounding where I went to college, Ohio University in Athens, Ohio. Packer doesn’t dwell at all on the fact that there is a solidly Democratic county in the middle of the area Packer discusses heavily in his piece, extremely conservative Southeastern Ohio. I would have liked for him to discuss the dichotomy a little more, but I guess that’s getting away from his focus on the working class and the working poor.
It’d definitely (in part) an image of Ohio I recognize. One of the things that it really brought home for me was the degree to which people simply parrot back things they hear on television. “Not ready to lead” is this year’s “flip flopper.” It’s not that these people are dumb or can’t think for themselves. They simply don’t consider it. Thinking for yourself is difficult, and if you’re struggling to put food on the table, I can see why coming home and browsing a candidate’s position papers on his website doesn’t seem like an attractive option – assuming, of course, that you even have access to the internet.
It’d definitely (in part) an image of Ohio I recognize. One of the things that it really brought home for me was the degree to which people simply parrot back things they hear on television. “Not ready to lead” is this year’s “flip flopper.” It’s not that these people are dumb or can’t think for themselves. They simply don’t consider it. Thinking for yourself is difficult, and if you’re struggling to put food on the table, I can see why coming home and browsing a candidate’s position papers on his website doesn’t seem like an attractive option – assuming, of course, that you even have access to the internet.
A Certain Irony
If there was a respectable trick left in the McPalin campaign, the NYT pretty effectively steals it with this brief piece, detailing the numerous liberal political achievements of...the Mavericks.
Sound like interesting folks, actually.
Sound like interesting folks, actually.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Out of the Woodwork
Well, the racists certainly don’t seem content to go gentle into that good night. I guess that shouldn’t surprise us. I imagine that Matt Yglesias is entirely correct when he assumes that an Obama victory will drive the racist elements of the Republican coalition into the open air for on last, grand Götterdämmerung. Well, that’s just fine with me. As these things go, sunlight is the best cure. This is why the civil rights movement was so very successful. The contrast was simply too stark: you can’t look at a parade full of quiet, peaceful, respectable people having firehoses turned on them by thugs like Bull Connor without having it shape your attitudes. In that sense, nonsense like the kind of theatrics we’re seeing at Palin’s rallies are more likely to continue, not less.
This strategy might wring a few more votes out of the bitter, decaying pulp of the Republican coalition, a brief distraction from the economy’s woes – perhaps even the outside chance of a victory.
So here’s my question for those inclined to answer it: what will replace the Republican Party? Will they just have to spend some time out of power for people to forget the upcoming ugliness, as well as the corruption, malfeasance and stupidity of the Bush Era? Or will they be utterly destroyed, the brand rendered so hollow and meaningless that it has to be replaced with something entirely new? Just because we’ve had over a hundred years of dominance by the Republican and Democratic Parties doesn’t mean it always has to be like that. It’d be pretty exciting to watch, too.
This strategy might wring a few more votes out of the bitter, decaying pulp of the Republican coalition, a brief distraction from the economy’s woes – perhaps even the outside chance of a victory.
So here’s my question for those inclined to answer it: what will replace the Republican Party? Will they just have to spend some time out of power for people to forget the upcoming ugliness, as well as the corruption, malfeasance and stupidity of the Bush Era? Or will they be utterly destroyed, the brand rendered so hollow and meaningless that it has to be replaced with something entirely new? Just because we’ve had over a hundred years of dominance by the Republican and Democratic Parties doesn’t mean it always has to be like that. It’d be pretty exciting to watch, too.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Courting the Racist Vote
Ben Smith at Politico sends along the experience of an Obama volunteer talking to people in a white working class neighborhood of Philadelphia.
On a more sociological note, I think this says something interesting about the United States. The media won’t come out and call anyone racist directly. After almost forty years of Sesame Street, if nothing else we’ve learned it’s not culturally acceptable to be a racist. This has positive and negative effects. It means that people see racism in public statements when they aren’t warranted and ignore them when they are.
"What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."How fascinating is that? Out and out, unapologetic racists still can’t decide if they can vote for McCain. What does it say when a person who would use that kind of language – to an Obama campaign worker – and still can’t talk themselves into voting for the old white guy? It’s always been true that economic issues cut for the Democratic candidate as well as the party out of power. I think we’re seeing that effect in full force if even the racists are undecided.
On a more sociological note, I think this says something interesting about the United States. The media won’t come out and call anyone racist directly. After almost forty years of Sesame Street, if nothing else we’ve learned it’s not culturally acceptable to be a racist. This has positive and negative effects. It means that people see racism in public statements when they aren’t warranted and ignore them when they are.
Endgame
Fully aware of the pitfalls that await anyone who would seek to go into the future-predicting business, the aggregate effect of this morning leaves little choice:
As part of my effort to generate more reader comments, I'm calling it.
With 34 days left, the race is ending, and Barack Obama has won.
Let's review the state of affairs that compel me to this post:
1. The massive federal bailout of the financial markets has not only failed to shore up the US markets, but has done little to shore up the approaching collapse of Europe's financial centers. Desperate efforts to prop up banks in Germany and Ireland over the weekend are probably the tip of the iceberg. The financial collapse of the Western world is driving a wave of news stories comparing the US in 2008 to Great Britain in 1946, when the costs of World War II forced London to essentially cede the global stage to Washington in exchange for a massive financial aide package. This charming state of affairs: brought to you by Republican governing philosophy. The economy is like kryptonite to the Republican campaign. McCain desperately needs the financial crisis to go away- it isn't. And it isn't going to.
2. Having been hammered in two consecutive debates, McPalin are now attempting to pivot away from the economic storyline which has done so much to hurt them in the last few weeks and regain control of their campaign message. However, they seek to do this by going back to the Wright and Rezko storylines that failed to bite six months ago and that feel anti-climatic, indeed rather desperate, at this point. If this is all they have left in the arsenal, it's the equivalent of dropping back into a prevent defense. And we all know what that prevents.
3. And then we come to the announcement that McCain's health care plan, which frankly never made much sense, will be paid for by gutting Medicare and Medicaid. There are die-hard conservatives who hate those programs. There are millions and millions more elderly people who rely on them, and who see voting to protect them as a seminal political issue. In fact, I'm struggling to think of another policy decision likely to have a similarly negative effect on support for McPalin, and right in the middle of the demographic most likely to support them too...reversing the outcome of the civil war, perhaps? Surrendering Oregon and Washington state to Canada?
It is difficult to say when efforts of the magnitude of a presidential campaign reach tipping points, but this weekend has the feel of one. The points listed above seem most salient, but there are so many others I could include- the withdrawal from Michigan, the transformation of Palin into a national joke (a woman channeling her yesterday afternoon couldn't impersonate Palin without including Tina Fey), McCain's increasingly obvious physical exhaustion, the political and moral bankruptcy of the Bush administration...how many more things could this list contain?
There are still two debates left, one of them being a town-hall style discussion ostensibly favoring McCain, but unless he radically reworks the direction of his campaign between now and then, it isn't going to matter. There's plenty of room left for endgame, but barring the occurrence of a series of events so terrible they will not even be committed to print, the outcome is increasingly clear.
This week, consideration turns to what will be left of the ship of state when Obama takes the helm.
Oh yeah, one other thing that hopefully doesn't even need saying: I'm not that good at this, so you should still make a point of voting :)
As part of my effort to generate more reader comments, I'm calling it.
With 34 days left, the race is ending, and Barack Obama has won.
Let's review the state of affairs that compel me to this post:
1. The massive federal bailout of the financial markets has not only failed to shore up the US markets, but has done little to shore up the approaching collapse of Europe's financial centers. Desperate efforts to prop up banks in Germany and Ireland over the weekend are probably the tip of the iceberg. The financial collapse of the Western world is driving a wave of news stories comparing the US in 2008 to Great Britain in 1946, when the costs of World War II forced London to essentially cede the global stage to Washington in exchange for a massive financial aide package. This charming state of affairs: brought to you by Republican governing philosophy. The economy is like kryptonite to the Republican campaign. McCain desperately needs the financial crisis to go away- it isn't. And it isn't going to.
2. Having been hammered in two consecutive debates, McPalin are now attempting to pivot away from the economic storyline which has done so much to hurt them in the last few weeks and regain control of their campaign message. However, they seek to do this by going back to the Wright and Rezko storylines that failed to bite six months ago and that feel anti-climatic, indeed rather desperate, at this point. If this is all they have left in the arsenal, it's the equivalent of dropping back into a prevent defense. And we all know what that prevents.
3. And then we come to the announcement that McCain's health care plan, which frankly never made much sense, will be paid for by gutting Medicare and Medicaid. There are die-hard conservatives who hate those programs. There are millions and millions more elderly people who rely on them, and who see voting to protect them as a seminal political issue. In fact, I'm struggling to think of another policy decision likely to have a similarly negative effect on support for McPalin, and right in the middle of the demographic most likely to support them too...reversing the outcome of the civil war, perhaps? Surrendering Oregon and Washington state to Canada?
It is difficult to say when efforts of the magnitude of a presidential campaign reach tipping points, but this weekend has the feel of one. The points listed above seem most salient, but there are so many others I could include- the withdrawal from Michigan, the transformation of Palin into a national joke (a woman channeling her yesterday afternoon couldn't impersonate Palin without including Tina Fey), McCain's increasingly obvious physical exhaustion, the political and moral bankruptcy of the Bush administration...how many more things could this list contain?
There are still two debates left, one of them being a town-hall style discussion ostensibly favoring McCain, but unless he radically reworks the direction of his campaign between now and then, it isn't going to matter. There's plenty of room left for endgame, but barring the occurrence of a series of events so terrible they will not even be committed to print, the outcome is increasingly clear.
This week, consideration turns to what will be left of the ship of state when Obama takes the helm.
Oh yeah, one other thing that hopefully doesn't even need saying: I'm not that good at this, so you should still make a point of voting :)
Sunday, October 5, 2008
The Escalating Downhill Slide
Eve Fairbanks has an article in the Washington Post today discussing the developing core of the Republican Party in the house: committed to ideology over practicality, this group of new young movement conservatives prefer to be philosophically consistent rather than getting down to the hard business of compromise and, you know, governing.
It’s been a fair long while since the Republican Party (especially in the House, but with a handful of nutters in the Senate) have been interested in actually running the government. When reality contradicts what they believe (trickle-down economics works, having solid first principles is more important than experience, education or knowledge), they simply ignore reality. The end result of this is a group of people in deep red seats that are committed to their own version of the world, no matter what happens. This is the logical endgame of the Republican Party, who for going on forty years now have believed that if reality contradicts them (in the form, especially, of the media) it’s best to simply ignore and slander it.
Talk radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity (ironic spell check suggestions: Sanity) and the rest of the Fox News crew have based their whole program on ignoring and dismissing what their “enemies” (and “enemy” here should be read as “people who disagree and/or point out that they’re wrong”) contradict them, they are either to be ignored, marginalized or demonized, whichever is most convenient. This has certainly been a successful tactic up until now and has reached its fullest flower in Sarah Palin. Instead of learning from their legislative defeats in 2006 and what looks like an upcoming electoral slaughterhouse in 2008, these delightful conservative lawmakers are adapating a new version of the Tinkerbell Theory of Electorial Politics: if you lose, it’s not because voters have dismissed your arguments – it’s just that you didn’t lay out your arguments forcefully enough.
All of this is certainly fine with me. The Republican Party’s headlong rush to religious, racist regionalism can only be of benefit to the rest of the Union. I’d like to say it’s been nice knowing you, fellas, but I don’t want to lie.
It’s been a fair long while since the Republican Party (especially in the House, but with a handful of nutters in the Senate) have been interested in actually running the government. When reality contradicts what they believe (trickle-down economics works, having solid first principles is more important than experience, education or knowledge), they simply ignore reality. The end result of this is a group of people in deep red seats that are committed to their own version of the world, no matter what happens. This is the logical endgame of the Republican Party, who for going on forty years now have believed that if reality contradicts them (in the form, especially, of the media) it’s best to simply ignore and slander it.
Talk radio hosts like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity (ironic spell check suggestions: Sanity) and the rest of the Fox News crew have based their whole program on ignoring and dismissing what their “enemies” (and “enemy” here should be read as “people who disagree and/or point out that they’re wrong”) contradict them, they are either to be ignored, marginalized or demonized, whichever is most convenient. This has certainly been a successful tactic up until now and has reached its fullest flower in Sarah Palin. Instead of learning from their legislative defeats in 2006 and what looks like an upcoming electoral slaughterhouse in 2008, these delightful conservative lawmakers are adapating a new version of the Tinkerbell Theory of Electorial Politics: if you lose, it’s not because voters have dismissed your arguments – it’s just that you didn’t lay out your arguments forcefully enough.
All of this is certainly fine with me. The Republican Party’s headlong rush to religious, racist regionalism can only be of benefit to the rest of the Union. I’d like to say it’s been nice knowing you, fellas, but I don’t want to lie.
This Untrue Information May Be Used Against You
According to Wired’s Threat Level blog, the Supreme Court is about to consider a case on the government’s use of databases. In Alabama, a man was arrested because a database falsely said that he had a warrant in another county. When the officers arrested him (on a non existent warrant) they discovered crystal meth and a handgun. What’s surprising about the case is that the government is not arguing the search was Constitutional – everyone agrees that it wasn’t. What the government is saying is that it just doesn’t matter: it’s too complicated and involved for the government to bother keeping up-to-date records.
More and more of our information is being collected and collated in government databases. It’s nothing more than the government’s responsibility to make sure that these kinds of incidents don’t happen. If this evidence would be thrown out because a police officer didn’t have probable cause to search him in the first place, it ought to be thrown out because he was arrested for a warrant that wasn’t active. I fail to see a distinction between the two.
With nonsense like the “terrorism watch list” and other shadowy government databases, we need to hash out some new rights regarding the kind of information the government can collect, keep and use against you. If the government isn’t responsible for making sure this information is accurate and correct, than why would they bother?
More and more of our information is being collected and collated in government databases. It’s nothing more than the government’s responsibility to make sure that these kinds of incidents don’t happen. If this evidence would be thrown out because a police officer didn’t have probable cause to search him in the first place, it ought to be thrown out because he was arrested for a warrant that wasn’t active. I fail to see a distinction between the two.
With nonsense like the “terrorism watch list” and other shadowy government databases, we need to hash out some new rights regarding the kind of information the government can collect, keep and use against you. If the government isn’t responsible for making sure this information is accurate and correct, than why would they bother?
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Not Out of the Woods
So in another stunning victory for American politics, the House passed the "bailout" bill which was an irresponsible affront to free market capitalism at 700 billion, but became good policy with the addition of numerous absurd earmark spending amendments. The bill was then transported at something approaching light speed to Still President Bush, who signed it so rapidly that he probably didn't read it, and with that another roughly trillion dollars of debt was added to the federal budget.
One of the things which endeared Bill Clinton to me was his penchant for balanced budgets, surpluses even. Eight years of wild deficit spending are now bookended by another massive, emergency spending bill. The punditocracy have breathed a collective sigh of relief, and have returned home to see their pets, children, and significant others during daylight hours for the first time in two weeks. We've thrown a heap of money at the problem, and no doubt it is now solved.
But here's the thing- nobody, anywhere, knows if this will work. We are still improvising at a pace that doesn't allow for much reflection. Wall Street is having a hard time finding anyone to ring the bell opening the market on Monday, people not wanting to be associated with a possible ongoing disaster. But the stocks are only the surface ripples created by the monster lurking beneath the waves, the non-liquidity of the commercial paper markets. If you are one of the many still struggling to understand the madness of this debacle, I highly recommend this piece from This American Life, explaining the whole thing in a very approachable way.
Pay no attention to the screaming CNN headlines about the performance of Wall Street. Wait to see if banks resume loaning money to one another- that's the real, and only, marker of a resolution to yet another Republican-created disaster. And don't be astonished if we end up throwing another trillion at the beast two weeks from now.
Also, due to the rampant popularity of the radio piece linked above, it has become a daily podcast called Planet Money which you can get free from Itunes.
One of the things which endeared Bill Clinton to me was his penchant for balanced budgets, surpluses even. Eight years of wild deficit spending are now bookended by another massive, emergency spending bill. The punditocracy have breathed a collective sigh of relief, and have returned home to see their pets, children, and significant others during daylight hours for the first time in two weeks. We've thrown a heap of money at the problem, and no doubt it is now solved.
But here's the thing- nobody, anywhere, knows if this will work. We are still improvising at a pace that doesn't allow for much reflection. Wall Street is having a hard time finding anyone to ring the bell opening the market on Monday, people not wanting to be associated with a possible ongoing disaster. But the stocks are only the surface ripples created by the monster lurking beneath the waves, the non-liquidity of the commercial paper markets. If you are one of the many still struggling to understand the madness of this debacle, I highly recommend this piece from This American Life, explaining the whole thing in a very approachable way.
Pay no attention to the screaming CNN headlines about the performance of Wall Street. Wait to see if banks resume loaning money to one another- that's the real, and only, marker of a resolution to yet another Republican-created disaster. And don't be astonished if we end up throwing another trillion at the beast two weeks from now.
Also, due to the rampant popularity of the radio piece linked above, it has become a daily podcast called Planet Money which you can get free from Itunes.
Debates Were Held
An interesting article from CNN lays out the differences in Biden and Palin’s speaking styles from the debate. What struck me the most was this:
The analysis by the Austin, Texas-based Global Language Monitor said Palin, governor of Alaska and the GOP vice presidential nominee, used the passive voice in 8 percent of her sentences, far more than the 5 percent used by the Democratic senator from Delaware.Passive voice, as they mention, is used to obscure the subject of a sentence: “Mistakes were made.” I’m not saying who made the mistakes, but there they are and we should move on without belaboring the point. I’m no great statistician, but it seems odd to me that 8% is really “far more” than the 5% that Biden used. What’s more interesting, the article implies, is the way that Palin used the passive voice to avoid mentioning George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. I know that Republicans are going out of their way to avoid being associated with the one time leader of their cult of personality, but isn’t it interesting that even Palin would resort to eliding their existence grammatically rather than have to deal with the consequences of eight years of Republican leadership? Actions and consequences, it seems, were referred to.
The analysis noted that the "passive voice can be used to deflect responsibility; Biden used active voice when referring to [Vice President Dick] Cheney and [President] Bush; Palin countered with passive deflections."
Friday, October 3, 2008
Contest in a Teacup
There is no doubt that according to the Oxford Rules, Sarah Palin had her lipstick handed to her last night by Joe Biden. The trouble is that the debate isn't run according to the well established conventions of that august body, and I suspect she did better with much of the audience not answering questions the way the moderator asked them than those of us blogging about it would care to believe.
However, it remains to be seen whether or not that matters anymore. Nothing she did last night seems likely to have advanced the McPalin campaign very much relative to Obiden, although she certainly could have contributed to losing it with another Couric-level debacle. On the morning after, all the anticipation of the Biden-Palin exchange seems curiously misplaced.
So we are left back where we were at this time yesterday, with I am guessing a small polling correction in McCain's favor as Palin demonstrates she is at least capable of memorizing talking points. If McCain is to have any hope of turning the election around, with the polls running against him and his campaign withdrawing from Michigan, we can expect increasingly desperate tactics as he tries to find something that will stick (other than attempting to expropriate the Obama campaign). We can also expect some sort of especially sleazy bombshells are being laid up for the 72 hours before voting day, although even that tactical chestnut may be mitigated by the fact that so many states are moving to early voting periods.
Palin probably reinforced her standing with Republicans last night, did no harm with independents, but failed to repeat the infusion of energy and purpose that accompanied her conference address. McCain needs something more consequential if he hopes to turn around the polling trends of the last two weeks.
However, it remains to be seen whether or not that matters anymore. Nothing she did last night seems likely to have advanced the McPalin campaign very much relative to Obiden, although she certainly could have contributed to losing it with another Couric-level debacle. On the morning after, all the anticipation of the Biden-Palin exchange seems curiously misplaced.
So we are left back where we were at this time yesterday, with I am guessing a small polling correction in McCain's favor as Palin demonstrates she is at least capable of memorizing talking points. If McCain is to have any hope of turning the election around, with the polls running against him and his campaign withdrawing from Michigan, we can expect increasingly desperate tactics as he tries to find something that will stick (other than attempting to expropriate the Obama campaign). We can also expect some sort of especially sleazy bombshells are being laid up for the 72 hours before voting day, although even that tactical chestnut may be mitigated by the fact that so many states are moving to early voting periods.
Palin probably reinforced her standing with Republicans last night, did no harm with independents, but failed to repeat the infusion of energy and purpose that accompanied her conference address. McCain needs something more consequential if he hopes to turn around the polling trends of the last two weeks.
Exceeding Expectations and Other Low Hanging Fruit
The debate last night proceeded pretty much exactly as I thought. Palin’s performance was uninspired and uninspiring unless you are already in the bag for the governor of Alaska. I think the conventional reaction so far has been pretty dead on. Palin clearly has little to no understanding of matters foreign or domestic. The format last night was a great favor to her. When Palin got into trouble with Couric and Gibson was on the follow up questions, where she was expected to rephrase and explain ideas and thoughts that she had learned by rote. The format last night gave her the opportunity to simply recite the talking points that have been carefully drilled into her, even if those rote responses didn’t answer the question that had been asked her. She didn’t fall down or drool on herself and I have no doubt that this will be the last time we see her in any setting that is not a stump speech in front of a carefully vetted crowd. There’s no margin for the McCain campaign in putting her out there – she can only make herself look like a fool.
I thought Joe Biden’s performance, especially in the early going, was uninspired. As the debate wore on, I felt he picked up steam and really got into the moment. He certainly “won” the debate on the merits, but this was never about “winning.” Everyone knows Biden is worlds smarter and more informed than Palin. All Palin had to do was do better than the exceedingly low expectations set for her. Mission accomplished.
Barring some sort of unforeseen disaster, I think Palin has stopped being a factor in the race. Not that she should, of course. But once the McCain campaign pulls the curtain in front of her, what is the media going to do? I can’t see them going into open revolt on one of the major party candidates a month before the election. I also think the rumors of Bristol Palin’s wedding happening before the election are absurd. There’s simply no way the McCain camp will want to put the spotlight back on her now that they’ve cleared this hurdle.
I thought Joe Biden’s performance, especially in the early going, was uninspired. As the debate wore on, I felt he picked up steam and really got into the moment. He certainly “won” the debate on the merits, but this was never about “winning.” Everyone knows Biden is worlds smarter and more informed than Palin. All Palin had to do was do better than the exceedingly low expectations set for her. Mission accomplished.
Barring some sort of unforeseen disaster, I think Palin has stopped being a factor in the race. Not that she should, of course. But once the McCain campaign pulls the curtain in front of her, what is the media going to do? I can’t see them going into open revolt on one of the major party candidates a month before the election. I also think the rumors of Bristol Palin’s wedding happening before the election are absurd. There’s simply no way the McCain camp will want to put the spotlight back on her now that they’ve cleared this hurdle.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Arguments and Expectations
Tonight’s the big debate. I’m looking forward to checking it out, although it’ll be on at about four o’clock in the morning here, so I’ll likely have to wait until tomorrow to see tonight’s debate. There are a lot of issues in play – Gwen Ifill, the specter of the big, old white guy picking on the attractive young(er) woman. I think, however, anyone expecting a kind of nationally televised schadenfruede-fueled meltdown is going to be disappointed. I agree with James Fallows who thinks that the expectations for Palin are so low that any performance she turns in that doesn’t include drooling and pratfalls is going to be treated as a victory over expectations. I don’t think this means Palin is going to deliver anything close to a successful performance – or even a coherent one – but I do think she’s going to do better than every expects.
Palin will get up there, read through her talking points, and that will be the end of it. Republicans will claim that Ifill was being overly harsh on the governor and that, regardless, Palin’s poor performance so far was all liberal media bias to begin with.
Palin will get up there, read through her talking points, and that will be the end of it. Republicans will claim that Ifill was being overly harsh on the governor and that, regardless, Palin’s poor performance so far was all liberal media bias to begin with.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
An Obama Wind
According to almost every poll imaginable, Obama is pulling into substantial leads in Florida and Ohio, and pulling ahead in a number of other states. Some numbers with explanation at Huffpo, and just reams of data for those of that persuasion here at RCP.
I think the interesting thing about the second link is that, I believe for the first time, Obama-Biden run the board, ahead in every poll. It's an awful lot of blue in that column.
Of course, the next debate is tomorrow, and while they are usually important, the relatively controlled nature of access to McPalin has infused them with increasing significance this year. One has to assume that each of them will result in relatively energetic adjustments to the numbers. One also has to assume that McCain won't get many more opportunities to do anything so stupid as suspend his campaign again in the next 34 days. But then, it's probably too late already- according to the Perot Doctrine, suspending your campaign at all is the kiss of death.
I think the interesting thing about the second link is that, I believe for the first time, Obama-Biden run the board, ahead in every poll. It's an awful lot of blue in that column.
Of course, the next debate is tomorrow, and while they are usually important, the relatively controlled nature of access to McPalin has infused them with increasing significance this year. One has to assume that each of them will result in relatively energetic adjustments to the numbers. One also has to assume that McCain won't get many more opportunities to do anything so stupid as suspend his campaign again in the next 34 days. But then, it's probably too late already- according to the Perot Doctrine, suspending your campaign at all is the kiss of death.
Russian Mirage
I really wanted to stay away, but this is too good.
So, CNN sent a film crew to the only part of Alaska from which Russian territory is visible with the naked eye. It's 500 miles west of Anchorage, in the middle of the Bering Sea, a windswept rock with 150 people, no television, and it is also a place Sarah Palin has NEVER BEEN. In fact, no governor of Alaska has ever visited this remote island.
What did she think she was seeing? It seems clear that she has been warily eying some part of US territory all these years, unless this whole line of argument is just complete BS. I realize the place obviously isn't exactly a haven of votes, but it does have 40% unemployment. You'd think someone would have seen fit to go look into that.
See the excellent video here.
So, CNN sent a film crew to the only part of Alaska from which Russian territory is visible with the naked eye. It's 500 miles west of Anchorage, in the middle of the Bering Sea, a windswept rock with 150 people, no television, and it is also a place Sarah Palin has NEVER BEEN. In fact, no governor of Alaska has ever visited this remote island.
What did she think she was seeing? It seems clear that she has been warily eying some part of US territory all these years, unless this whole line of argument is just complete BS. I realize the place obviously isn't exactly a haven of votes, but it does have 40% unemployment. You'd think someone would have seen fit to go look into that.
See the excellent video here.
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